March 7, 2016
Air Canada Centre | Toronto
BUF 4 – 3 TOR
FINAL / SO
| 1ST | 2ND | 3RD | OT | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| TOR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
TOR had more shot attempts in all situations, but Buffalo won 4-3 in a shootout.
- IN NET
- Buffalo C. Johnson .909TOR G. Sparks .889
- POWER PLAY
- Buffalo 0 of 4TOR 1 of 3
- TURNING POINT
- L. Komarov goal (P1 0:25), Sabres win chance drops from 50% to 32%
- WIN DNA
- 1 of 4 winning traits
- SHIFTS
- Toronto sent skaters out on short rest 52 times (typical 22)
Stats by Period
All situations, by period.
Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.
| 1ST | 2ND | 3RD | OT | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faceoffs Won | 10-9 | 6-7 | 12-10 | 2-3 | 30-29 |
| Hits | 10-11 | 15-8 | 14-12 | 1-1 | 40-32 |
| Takeaways | 3-7 | 1-8 | 2-6 | 2-0 | 8-21 |
| Giveaways | 3-7 | 4-1 | 3-2 | 1-0 | 11-10 |
Game Flow
Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.
Tied for only 15 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.
Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.
How this is measured
Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.
Win Probability
Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.
Opened at 50%.
- P1 00:25L. Komarov (19) 50% to 32%-18
- P2 16:23M. Pysyk (1) 7% to 23%+16
- P1 11:05B. Boyes (8), power play 30% to 15%-15
- P3 07:28J. Eichel (20) 3% to 16%+13
Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.
How this is measured
Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.
Shot Map
Every shot attempt, to scale.
Win DNA
1 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2015–16 regular season (82 games).
Shift Rhythm
Toronto sent skaters back out on short rest 52 times, well above the typical 22 a game.
| BUF | TOR | Typical game, 2025–26 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinned time (5v5) | 0:45 | 0:21 | 0:53 |
| Shot attempts against while pinned | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Short-rest shifts | 28 | 52 | 22 |
When Buffalo was pinned
| Period | Clock | Pinned | Skaters (unbroken play) | Attempts against | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 2:02 to 2:06 | 0:04 | C. O'Reilly 1:04 M. Pysyk 1:04 N. Deslauriers 1:04 C. Colaiacovo 1:04 | 0 | 0 |
| P1 | 5:03 to 5:04 | 0:01 | C. O'Reilly 1:01 N. Deslauriers 1:01 Z. Girgensons 1:01 | 0 | 0 |
| P2 | 7:06 to 7:18 | 0:12 | J. Gorges 1:24 R. Ristolainen 1:24 E. Kane 1:12 S. Reinhart 1:05 | 0 | 0 |
| P2 | 9:00 to 9:03 | 0:03 | D. Catenacci 1:03 M. Moulson 1:03 Z. Bogosian 1:03 | 0 | 0 |
| P2 | 11:43 to 12:00 | 0:17 | J. McCabe 1:26 Z. Bogosian 1:26 E. Kane 1:17 J. Eichel 1:17 | 1 | 0 |
When Toronto was pinned
| Period | Clock | Pinned | Skaters (unbroken play) | Attempts against | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 13:38 to 13:53 | 0:15 | B. Boyes 1:15 C. Carrick 1:15 M. Michalek 1:15 P. Holland 1:15 | 0 | 0 |
| P2 | 9:00 to 9:06 | 0:06 | B. Boyes 1:06 C. Carrick 1:06 M. Marincin 1:06 M. Michalek 1:06 P. Holland 1:06 | 0 | 0 |
How this is measured
Pinned. A team is pinned when 3 or more of its skaters on the ice are past a minute of unbroken play, at 5v5. A hemmed-in shift is an even-strength shift in which the unit was on for more than 1:00 without a whistle to change on, and stayed at even strength for most of it. A stoppage inside a shift starts the clock over, however it began: what counts is the run of play they could not get off the ice for. Only the time past the minute counts: the first minute of those shifts plays like any other stretch of the game, while past it the play tilts hard toward the end the pinned team is defending (in 2025–26, a pinned team took 24% of the shot attempts; pinned time was 1.9% of all 5v5 play). Pinned time is seconds on the clock, not each skater's seconds added up.
Short rest. An even-strength shift a skater started after less than 45 seconds on the bench, same period only (an intermission is a full rest).
Typical game. The middle value across Buffalo games in the 2025–26 regular season, counting both teams (164 team totals), so it stands in for a league-average game. This season has no measured row yet, so 2025–26 stands in. A sentence at the top only appears when a number is among the highest fifth of those, or when a goal went in while a team was pinned.
Shots at an empty net are left out of every row. None of this says why a goal went in: a unit that cannot change is pinned and tiring at the same time, so these rows describe when the danger came, not what caused it.
Shift by shift
Shift length, in order, for one Buffalo skater this game.
34 shifts, averaging 0:50. 1 hemmed-in, 5 after a short rest, 0:12 pinned.
Period averages are even strength only. Typical in 2025–26: 0:45, 0:50 (the long change), 0:47.
Line Combinations
Lines and pairs at 5v5, and how they did together.
What do TOI, CF, xG% etc. mean?
- GP
- Games in which this exact line/pair shared the ice together at 5v5.
- TOI
- Time on ice together at 5v5, meaning the whole line/pair on the ice at once, not any one player's own total. Only the seconds that exact pair or trio was the unit count, which is why a pair's TOI and xG% here differ slightly from the WOWY table, where together counts every 5v5 second the two share, whoever else is on the ice.
- xGF / xGA
- Expected goals for/against while this combo was on the ice, from this site's own xG model.
- xG%
- Share of on-ice expected goals this combo earned: xGF / (xGF + xGA). The single best read on who controlled play.
- GF / GA
- Actual goals for/against while this combo was on the ice together.
- CF / CA (Corsi For / Against, Shot Attempts)
- "Corsi" is just the hockey-analytics name for total shot attempts: shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots combined, a volume proxy for who had the puck more. CF is this combo's own attempts, CA is the opponent's.
- CF%
- Share of on-ice shot attempts (Corsi) this combo earned: CF / (CF + CA).
- CF% Rel
- This combo's CF% minus the team's own CF% in the minutes this exact combo was NOT on the ice. Positive means the combo lifted the team's play; negative means it dragged it down.
- xGF% Rel
- This combo's xG% minus the team's own xG% in the minutes this exact combo was NOT on the ice. Positive means the combo lifted the team's expected-goals share; negative means it dragged it down.
- FF / FA
- Unblocked shot attempts (also called Fenwick): shots on goal plus misses, excluding blocks. One layer closer to real scoring chances than CF/CA.
- SF / SA
- Shots on goal for/against while this combo was on the ice together.
- Minimum Ice Time
- Drag the slider on each table down to see combos with less shared ice time. Their percentages get noisier the lower you go, since a combo that barely played together can swing to 100% or 0% off a single shot.
| Line | GP | TOI ▾ | GF | GA | CF | CA | CF% | CF% Rel | FF | FA | SF | SA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gionta–Foligno–Larsson | 1 | 11:33 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 55.6% | 19.2% | 10 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| Kane–Reinhart–Eichel | 1 | 8:28 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 33.3% | -5.8% | 4 | 8 | 3 | 8 |
| O'Reilly–Deslauriers–Girgensons | 1 | 7:52 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 38.5% | 0.0% | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Legwand–Moulson–Catenacci | 1 | 3:41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 66.7% | 28.7% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Line | GP | TOI ▾ | GF | GA | CF | CA | CF% | CF% Rel | FF | FA | SF | SA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorges–Ristolainen | 1 | 16:22 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 32.3% | -7.6% | 8 | 14 | 8 | 10 |
| Bogosian–McCabe | 1 | 15:44 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 38.5% | 0.0% | 6 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| Colaiacovo–Pysyk | 1 | 12:22 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 52.6% | 15.9% | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
Box Score
| Player | G | A | P ▾ | +/- | PIM | SOG | iGAx | On-Ice | Game Score | TOI | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On-Ice TOI | xGF% | xGF% Rel | CF% | CF% Rel | FF% | GF% | PDO | xGS | GS | |||||||||||||||||||
| #9 E. Kane (LW) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | – | 14:58 | – | – | 32.3% | -9.6% | 28.6% | 50.0% | 1.233 | – | 1.0 | 22:10 | ||||||||||
| #23 S. Reinhart (C) | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 1 | – | 11:24 | – | – | 34.6% | -5.4% | 40.0% | 66.7% | 1.289 | – | 1.1 | 17:25 | ||||||||||
| #15 J. Eichel (C) | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 3 | – | 14:37 | – | – | 27.6% | -16.3% | 26.3% | 75.0% | 1.659 | – | 0.8 | 21:52 | ||||||||||
| #19 C. O'Reilly (C) | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | – | 11:36 | – | – | 33.3% | -6.7% | 38.5% | 100.0% | 1.200 | – | 0.4 | 16:10 | ||||||||||
| #26 M. Moulson (LW) | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 1 | – | 7:30 | – | – | 33.3% | -5.9% | 30.0% | 100.0% | 1.333 | – | 0.7 | 8:56 | ||||||||||
| #3 M. Pysyk (D) | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 2 | – | 13:14 | – | – | 54.2% | +21.9% | 55.0% | 100.0% | 1.125 | – | 1.2 | 15:43 | ||||||||||
| #12 B. Gionta (RW) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | – | 14:17 | – | – | 52.2% | +18.8% | 52.2% | – | 1.000 | – | 0.4 | 19:16 | ||||||||||
| #17 D. Legwand (C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 4:58 | – | – | 33.3% | -5.4% | 25.0% | – | 1.000 | – | -0.1 | 8:33 | ||||||||||
| #22 J. Larsson (LW) | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | – | 18:31 | – | – | 48.5% | +16.4% | 53.6% | 0.0% | 0.889 | – | 0.0 | 22:26 | ||||||||||
| #28 Z. Girgensons (C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | – | 11:14 | – | – | 31.8% | -8.8% | 21.4% | – | 1.000 | – | -0.3 | 14:10 | ||||||||||
| #43 D. Catenacci (C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | – | 7:19 | – | – | 55.6% | +19.2% | 50.0% | – | 1.000 | – | 0.1 | 8:04 | ||||||||||
| #44 N. Deslauriers (LW) | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | – | 13:37 | – | – | 34.8% | -4.9% | 38.5% | 0.0% | 0.833 | – | -0.3 | 13:37 | ||||||||||
| #82 M. Foligno (LW) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | – | 14:41 | – | – | 50.0% | +15.6% | 57.9% | – | 1.000 | – | 0.2 | 15:38 | ||||||||||
| #4 J. Gorges (D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 1 | – | 17:40 | – | – | 31.4% | -11.7% | 36.0% | 66.7% | 1.167 | – | -0.1 | 20:35 | ||||||||||
| #25 C. Colaiacovo (D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | – | 14:02 | – | – | 45.5% | +9.5% | 42.1% | – | 1.000 | – | -0.3 | 14:56 | ||||||||||
| #29 J. McCabe (D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | – | 16:31 | – | – | 37.9% | -0.7% | 38.9% | 50.0% | 1.024 | – | 0.1 | 20:28 | ||||||||||
| #47 Z. Bogosian (D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 2 | – | 16:42 | – | – | 37.9% | -0.7% | 38.9% | 0.0% | 0.889 | – | -0.3 | 21:59 | ||||||||||
| #55 R. Ristolainen (D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 2 | – | 18:15 | – | – | 29.4% | -14.8% | 32.0% | 66.7% | 1.159 | – | -0.4 | 28:18 | ||||||||||
| Total | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
On-ice rates are 5-on-5. Rel compares to the team with that skater off the ice.
| Goalie | SA | GA | xGA | SV% | GSAx | GS | TOI ▾ | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #31 C. Johnson | 33 | 3 | – | .909 | – | 0.8 | 64:34 | W |