Mattias Samuelsson#23

D with Buffalo, 2020–21 to 2025–26

No. 23Shoots LHeight 6'4"Weight 229 lbsBorn March 14, 2000Hometown Philadelphia, PA, USA
On-Ice Impact, 2025–26 5v5
52.3%
xGF% ON ICE
47.6%
CF% ON ICE

On-ice PDO 1.035 (5v5 on-ice shooting plus save percentage). PDO over one season is noisy, it regresses hard toward 1.000, so read it as recent puck luck rather than a skill.

Buffalo's 5v5 xGF% rose most with Bryson (+18.1) and fell most with Timmins (-15.9).

See the full teammate breakdown
Recent Form
Last 10
Last 20
Points
2 to 6
2Cold
7 
Individual xG
0.08 to 0.23
0.08Cold
0.12 
On-Ice xGF%
49.7% to 63.5%
59.8%Hot
59.3% 
Game Score
0.20 to 0.79
0.37Cold
0.39 

Each line is the metric's rolling 10-game value across the last 20 games, so it ends on the Last 10 figure. The dashed line is the player's season average (50% for On-Ice xGF%), with navy shading for time spent above it and gray for below. Gold ticks mark goal games. Descriptive only, small samples swing.

Career With Buffalo

290 games, 6 seasons
20
G
146th all-time
64
A
109th all-time
84
PTS
126th all-time
116
PIM
154th all-time
21:01
TOI/G

All-time is the rank among the 529 skaters with a regular-season game for Buffalo since 1970–71. Ties share a rank.

Season by Season

Chart:
Drag to zoom

These stats don’t share a natural scale, so each line is normalized to its own 0-100% range for shape comparison. Hover a point for its real value.

0713202020212022202320242025SeasonGoalsaging curve

The dashed line is a league-typical aging curve for a defenseman, scaled to this player's own level. Above it means producing more than a typical player that age; the line falling away faster than the curve means declining faster than the aging curve alone would explain.

SeasonAgeGPGAPTS+/-PIMPen +/-/60PPSHGWGSOGS%FO%TOI/GP/60ixGxG/60GAxCF%FF%GF%xG%PDO
2020–21*2012022-84+0.28000100.0%0.0%18:02
0.55
18th pct
0.3
0.07
5th pct
-0.2
55th pct
41.7%
1st pct
42.0%18.8%45.9%0.925
2021–22214201010-1016+0.14000440.0%0.0%20:00
0.71
40th pct
2.4
0.17
46th pct
-2.3
7th pct
47.4%
32nd pct
47.1%41.0%44.7%0.971
2022–2322552810+1420-0.30000762.6%0.0%22:11
0.49
13th pct
4.5
0.22
65th pct
-2.4
6th pct
48.3%
38th pct
48.3%53.4%52.1%1.017
2023–242341167+426-0.57001442.3%0.0%20:30
0.50
15th pct
1.4
0.10
13th pct
-0.4
50th pct
51.6%
69th pct
53.1%50.0%51.3%0.989
2024–25246241014+322-0.05001527.7%0.0%19:18
0.70
38th pct
1.7
0.08
9th pct
+2.3
94th pct
45.9%
27th pct
46.7%46.3%45.0%1.000
2025–262578132841+4128-0.1001310911.9%0.0%22:50
1.38
91st pct
7.0
0.24
72nd pct
+6.0
99th pct
47.6%
28th pct
48.2%59.4%52.3%1.035
Total290206484+441160153356.0%21:010.83

* Shortened season. Weigh its totals against a full 82-game year with that in mind.

pct under a P/60, xG/60, GAx and CF% figure is where that season ranks, as a percentile, among every Sabres defenseman season since 2016–17 with at least 12 games; a season under that floor isn't ranked. xG/60, GAx and CF% come from this site's own xG model and shift-chart reconstruction, not an NHL feed; P/60 is from official NHL totals. Higher is better throughout.

Actual vs Expected

One row per season: the gold dot is the expected total, the navy dot is what actually happened.

xGGoals
04811152020–212020–21: 0.3 xG2020–21: 0 Goals (-0.2 vs expected)0 / 0.32021–222021–22: 2.4 xG2021–22: 0 Goals (-2.3 vs expected)0 / 2.42022–232022–23: 4.5 xG2022–23: 2 Goals (-2.4 vs expected)2 / 4.52023–242023–24: 1.4 xG2023–24: 1 Goals (-0.4 vs expected)1 / 1.42024–252024–25: 1.7 xG2024–25: 4 Goals (+2.3 vs expected)4 / 1.72025–262025–26: 7.0 xG2025–26: 13 Goals (+6.0 vs expected)13 / 7.0

Shot Map

Every shot attempt across every season shown here, to scale, always attacking right. Pick one season to see that year alone, or leave it on Career for the full picture.

xG range
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

With or Without You

Buffalo's 5v5 shot-attempt (CF%) and expected-goal (xGF%) share with Samuelsson on the ice, split by whether each teammate was out there too. Δ is the with-minus-apart gap: a positive number means the pair drove play better together than Samuelsson did without that teammate. That gap is always measured from the named player's side, so the same pair can read positive on one player's table and negative on the other's. 2025–26 regular season, minimum 20:00 together. Together counts every 5v5 second the two share, whoever else is on the ice, so a pair's time and xGF% here differ slightly from the Line Combinations table, which counts only the seconds that exact pair or trio was the unit.

Teammate
TOGETHER
SAMUELSSON APART
IMPACT
TOI TogetherCF%xGF%CF%xGF%Δ CF%Δ xGF%
Dahlin
852:2748.1%54.1%
46.9%49.9%
+1.2+4.2
Thompson
467:3750.3%53.0%
46.3%51.9%
+4.0+1.1
Krebs
431:3750.6%52.7%
46.3%52.1%
+4.3+0.6
Tuch
404:1847.6%51.4%
47.6%52.6%
0.0-1.2
Doan
373:3851.3%59.3%
46.4%49.8%
+4.9+9.5
Quinn
359:2944.8%47.8%
48.6%54.2%
-3.8-6.4
McLeod
350:0445.1%49.7%
48.4%53.2%
-3.3-3.5
Benson
297:2347.4%55.9%
47.7%51.3%
-0.3+4.6
Malenstyn
289:4147.0%54.1%
47.8%52.0%
-0.8+2.1
Zucker
259:5746.0%46.7%
48.0%53.7%
-2.0-7.0
Ostlund
247:3648.7%53.8%
47.4%52.0%
+1.3+1.8
Byram
190:1446.1%57.8%
47.9%51.3%
-1.8+6.5
Kozak
184:3942.1%46.5%
48.4%53.0%
-6.3-6.5
Power
175:1545.8%44.0%
47.9%53.6%
-2.1-9.6
Norris
170:0548.2%55.4%
47.5%51.8%
+0.7+3.6
Greenway
158:3639.7%47.9%
48.5%52.7%
-8.8-4.8
Dunne
116:4255.1%59.2%
47.1%52.0%
+8.0+7.2
Timmins
72:4939.8%37.5%
48.1%53.4%
-8.3-15.9
Kesselring
60:5559.3%65.1%
47.1%51.9%
+12.2+13.2
Metsa
59:1542.4%47.4%
47.9%52.5%
-5.5-5.1
Rosen
54:5640.0%54.4%
47.9%52.2%
-7.9+2.2
Kulich
51:4944.2%52.6%
47.8%52.3%
-3.6+0.3
Carrick
44:1344.7%56.3%
47.7%52.2%
-3.0+4.1
Helenius
37:1467.2%50.5%
47.2%52.3%
+20.0-1.8
Bryson
27:5366.7%70.2%
47.4%52.1%
+19.3+18.1

Shift Rhythm Profile

How Samuelsson's shift length lines up with on-ice results, 2025–26 regular season. A shift under 0:30 is a quick change, usually right off a whistle. 0:30 to 0:45 is a short shift and 0:45 to 1:00 a typical one. 1:00 or more is a long shift, more likely during a delayed line change, a d-zone lockdown, or a penalty kill that ran long. Shift length is an outcome before it is a cause: a shift runs long because the unit could not change. Most of a long shift is ordinary play, though; the stretch past the one-minute mark is where a unit is really pinned, and each game page counts that time on its own. Empty-net goals against are left out.

361 of 657 of Samuelsson's shifts over a minute were hemmed-in shifts (mostly even strength, more than 60 seconds of unbroken play).

Shift LengthShiftsCF%xG%GFGA
Quick (<0:30)29340.7%48.0%2627
Short (0:30-0:45)52543.4%51.8%2621
Typical (0:45-1:00)58441.3%47.5%2415
Long (1:00+)65741.2%42.8%2930
0:52
AVG SHIFT
56
PP SHIFTS
267
PK SHIFTS
+5s
LONG-CHANGE GAP
361
HEMMED-IN SHIFTS
237
SHORT-REST SHIFTS