@ DAL (Mar 31, 2003)@ BOS (Apr 5, 2003) ›

April 2, 2003

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

ATL 34 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs ATL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
ATL2103
BUF0044
Shots on goal ATL 23, BUF 40W M. NoronenL P. Nurminen
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 4-3.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Noronen .870
ATL P. Nurminen .900
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 5
ATL 1 of 4
TURNING POINT
D. Brière goal (P3 18:01), Sabres win chance rises from 12% to 57%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Connolly
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
J. Hecht
21:04
TOI (F)
A. Zhitnik
27:09
TOI (D)
M. Noronen
.870 (20/23)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFATL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 12 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+17+90-9-17shot attemptsBUFATL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 58%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFATL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 18:01D. Brière (23) 12% to 57%+45
  2. P3 19:06T. Connolly (12) 53% to 99%+46
  3. P1 10:49L. Bartecko (7) 57% to 37%-20
  4. P1 11:12Y. Tremblay (8) 36% to 20%-16

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2002–03 regular season (82 games).

Wins (27)Losses (45, 8 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 72% when yes, 19% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 87% when yes, 25% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 51% when yes, 24% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 45% when yes, 29% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
0
2
2
+1
0
3
1.5
16:14
#18 T. Connolly (C)
1
1
2
0
4
3
1.4
15:42
#48 D. Brière (C)
1
1
2
+1
2
2
1.5
19:02
#81 M. Satan (RW)
0
2
2
0
0
3
1.9
20:11
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
2
1.1
15:00
#44 A. Zhitnik (D)
0
1
1
0
2
4
0.8
27:09
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
1
0
1
0
0
1
0.9
22:49
#15 M. Bartovic (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
8:17
#16 C. Taylor (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.2
16:35
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
5
0
0.0
9:57
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
13:22
#26 E. Boulton (LW)
0
0
0
0
15
0
0.0
6:49
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
6
0.5
13:50
#71 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
+1
0
5
0.4
21:04
#4 R. Warrener (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
5
0.4
16:24
#8 R. Fitzpatrick (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
3
0.2
15:32
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.0
17:10
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.1
17:10
Total
4
7
11
30
40
10.9
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#35 M. Noronen233.870-0.259:58W

Team Stats

ATLBUF
23Shots on Goal40
4Power Play Chances5
25%PP%40%
60%PK%75%
1PPG2
32Penalty Minutes30
22Hits31
10Blocked Shots5
11Giveaways9
2Takeaways3

Full Game Log

1ST
10:49GOAL (ATL): Lubos Bartecko (7), assists: Kamil Piros
11:12GOAL (ATL): Yannick Tremblay (8), assists: Marc Savard, Vyacheslav Kozlov
2ND
06:32GOAL (ATL): Dany Heatley (38), assists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Marc Savard
3RD
06:43GOAL (BUF): Dmitri Kalinin (7), assists: J-P Dumont, Daniel Brière
12:56GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (20), assists: Tim Connolly
18:01GOAL (BUF): Daniel Brière (23), assists: Miroslav Satan, J-P Dumont
19:06GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (12), assists: Miroslav Satan, Alexei Zhitnik
@ DAL (Mar 31, 2003)@ BOS (Apr 5, 2003) ›