@ OTT (Nov 5, 2016)vs OTT (Nov 9, 2016) ›

November 7, 2016

TD Garden | Boston

BUF 04 BOS

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs BOS all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF0000
BOS0314
Shots on goal BUF 32, BOS 42W T. RaskL R. Lehner
Summary

BOS had the better expected goals in all situations and won 4-0.

FINISHING
Buffalo 0 goals on 2.72 xG
BOS 4 goals on 4.14 xG
IN NET
Buffalo R. Lehner .905 (+0.1 GSAx)
BOS T. Rask 1.000 (+2.7 GSAx)
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 3
BOS 3 of 8
TURNING POINT
B. Marchand, power play goal (P2 5:44), Sabres win chance drops from 49% to 26%
BEST LINE
Moulson–Okposo–O'Reilly, 99.7% of 5v5 xG
BEST PAIR
McCabe–Nelson, 50.8% of 5v5 xG
WIN DNA
1 of 8 winning traits
Game Leaders
POINTS
C. Franson
1.2
GAME SCORE
K. Okposo
0.46
XG
R. O'Reilly
21:18
TOI (F)
D. Kulikov
23:34
TOI (D)
R. Lehner
.905 (38/42)
SAVE %
Game Control
BUFBOSBUF shareBOS share
5-on-5
Expected goals2.141.9152.9%47.1%
Shot attempts494353.3%46.7%
Shot attempts, score-adjusted46.644.851.0%49.0%
High-danger chances6650.0%50.0%
Power play
Goals, of chances0 of 3 (0%)3 of 8 (38%)
Expected goals0.452.1817.2%82.8%
Shot attempts122730.8%69.2%
High-danger chances070.0%100.0%
Shorthanded expected goals0.130.0570.6%29.4%
All situations
Expected goals2.724.1439.7%60.3%
Shot attempts637346.3%53.7%
High-danger chances71335.0%65.0%

The Sabres had the better 5-on-5 chances, BOS the better chances in all situations.

How this is measured

Shot attempts include missed and blocked shots. Expected goals (xG) weigh each unblocked shot by its chance of going in; high-danger is 0.12 xG or more. Power-play goals and chances are the NHL's line, which counts a double minor as two chances and a 5-on-3 from two penalties as two, so the count can run above the number of penalties in the Full Game Log below. Score-adjusted is the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Best line and pair: among units with a winning 5-on-5 xG share, at least 2:00 together (4:00 for a pair) and 0.25 xG in those minutes (half that where a goal was scored in them), one that came out ahead on the goals scored and allowed with it out ranks first; the rest is the best mix of that share and those goals, weighted two to one.

Moulson–Okposo–O'ReillyBEST LINE

99.7% of xG (0.36 to 0.00), 6-5 on attempts in 8:00 together. Few chances either way.

McCabe–NelsonBEST D PAIR

50.8% of xG (0.37 to 0.35), 8-7 on attempts in 8:18 together.

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFBOS

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Additional per-period stats
Each cell is BUF-BOS.
 1ST2ND3RDTotal
Faceoffs Won12-410-97-1529-28
Hits8-127-510-325-20
Takeaways0-15-33-18-5
Giveaways3-33-54-310-11
PDO (5v5): BUF 0.957BOS 1.043. Shooting % plus save %. About 1.000 is neutral.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+18+90-9-18shot attemptsBUFBOS

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 49%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFBOS
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 05:44B. Marchand (5), power play 49% to 26%-23
  2. P2 10:12D. Krejci (1), power play 21% to 8%-13
  3. P2 14:41R. Nash (1) 8% to 2%-6
  4. P2 07:50High sticking double minor on Zemgus Girgensons, 4 min 26% to 20%-6

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.

Expected Goals

Cumulative xG from the game. What is xG?

BUF 2.72xGBOS 4.14
P3 20:00
0246123

Shot Map

Every shot attempt, to scale.

xG range
Replay
P3 19:51
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

Win DNA

1 of 8 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2016–17 regular season (82 games).

Wins (33)Losses (49, 12 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersxG share 50%+, allGoalie > xGD combined 3+ ptsScored firstMore HD chances, allShot qualityDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 75% when yes, 18% when no
No
xG share 50%+ (all situations)
Sabres win 64% when yes, 28% when no
Yes
Goalie beat expected
Sabres win 52% when yes, 24% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 83% when yes, 28% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 51% when yes, 29% when no
No
More high-danger chances (all situations)
Sabres win 52% when yes, 33% when no
No
Better shot quality than opponent
Sabres win 58% when yes, 21% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 45% when yes, 34% when no

Shift Rhythm

Nothing in either team's shifts stood out: pinned time, short rest were all close to a typical game this season.

BUFBOSTypical game, 2016–17
Pinned time (5v5)0:470:590:54
Shot attempts against while pinned131
Short-rest shifts121727
xG against, skaters 40+ seconds into a shift54%36%

When Boston was pinned

PeriodClockPinnedSkaters (unbroken play)Attempts againstGA
P15:13 to 5:140:0100
P115:55 to 16:160:21
R. Nash 1:21
30
P117:25 to 17:290:04
T. Krug 1:04
00
P22:31 to 2:500:1900
P27:17 to 7:200:0300

When Buffalo was pinned

PeriodClockPinnedSkaters (unbroken play)Attempts againstGA
P15:13 to 5:140:0100
P115:55 to 16:120:1700
P117:25 to 17:290:0400
P22:35 to 2:590:2410
P217:40 to 17:410:0100
How this is measured

Pinned. A team is pinned when 3 or more of its skaters on the ice are past a minute of unbroken play, at 5v5. A hemmed-in shift is an even-strength shift in which the unit was on for more than 1:00 without a whistle to change on, and stayed at even strength for most of it. A stoppage inside a shift starts the clock over, however it began: what counts is the run of play they could not get off the ice for. Only the time past the minute counts: the first minute of those shifts plays like any other stretch of the game, while past it the play tilts hard toward the end the pinned team is defending (in 2016–17, a pinned team took 28% of the shot attempts; pinned time was 2.0% of all 5v5 play). Pinned time is seconds on the clock, not each skater's seconds added up.

Short rest. An even-strength shift a skater started after less than 45 seconds on the bench, same period only (an intermission is a full rest).

Tired legs. Every shot attempt is tagged by how far into their shifts the defending skaters were, on average, at that moment (goalies left out). The row is the share of xG against that came with them 40 seconds or more in. xG covers goals, shots on goal and misses. Shots are counted from the play-by-play.

Typical game. The middle value across Buffalo games in the 2016–17 regular season, counting both teams (164 team totals), so it stands in for a league-average game. A sentence at the top only appears when a number is among the highest fifth of those, or when a goal went in while a team was pinned.

Shots at an empty net are left out of every row. None of this says why a goal went in: a unit that cannot change is pinned and tiring at the same time, so these rows describe when the danger came, not what caused it.

Shift by shift

Shift length, in order, for one Buffalo skater this game.

28 shifts, averaging 0:51. 3 hemmed-in, 0 after a short rest, 0:04 pinned.

Replay
Shift 28
Hemmed-in shiftShort rest before itGoal forGoal againstPenalty takenPower playPenalty killPeriod average and middle half of shifts (even strength)
P1avg 0:51P2avg 0:38P3avg 0:510:000:301:001:302:002:30151015202528Shift Number

Period averages are even strength only. Typical in 2016–17: 0:45, 0:49 (the long change), 0:46.

Line Combinations

Lines and pairs at 5v5, and how they did together.

What do TOI, CF, xG% etc. mean?
GP
Games in which this exact line/pair shared the ice together at 5v5.
TOI
Time on ice together at 5v5, meaning the whole line/pair on the ice at once, not any one player's own total. Only the seconds that exact pair or trio was the unit count, which is why a pair's TOI and xG% here differ slightly from the WOWY table, where together counts every 5v5 second the two share, whoever else is on the ice.
xGF / xGA
Expected goals for/against while this combo was on the ice, from this site's own xG model.
xG%
Share of on-ice expected goals this combo earned: xGF / (xGF + xGA). The single best read on who controlled play.
GF / GA
Actual goals for/against while this combo was on the ice together.
CF / CA (Corsi For / Against, Shot Attempts)
"Corsi" is just the hockey-analytics name for total shot attempts: shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots combined, a volume proxy for who had the puck more. CF is this combo's own attempts, CA is the opponent's.
CF%
Share of on-ice shot attempts (Corsi) this combo earned: CF / (CF + CA).
CF% Rel
This combo's CF% minus the team's own CF% in the minutes this exact combo was NOT on the ice. Positive means the combo lifted the team's play; negative means it dragged it down.
xGF% Rel
This combo's xG% minus the team's own xG% in the minutes this exact combo was NOT on the ice. Positive means the combo lifted the team's expected-goals share; negative means it dragged it down.
FF / FA
Unblocked shot attempts (also called Fenwick): shots on goal plus misses, excluding blocks. One layer closer to real scoring chances than CF/CA.
SF / SA
Shots on goal for/against while this combo was on the ice together.
Minimum Ice Time
Drag the slider on each table down to see combos with less shared ice time. Their percentages get noisier the lower you go, since a combo that barely played together can swing to 100% or 0% off a single shot.
STRENGTH
Forward Lines
LineGPTOIxGFxGAxG%GFGACFCACF%CF% RelxGF% RelFFFASFSA
Moulson–Okposo–O'Reilly18:000.360.0099.7%006554.5%1.9%46.5%5241
Gionta–Foligno–Larsson17:500.280.5732.9%00131056.5%4.3%-26.8%10856
Grant–Carrier–Baptiste15:080.010.372.6%003925.0%-29.7%-57.0%2815
Ennis–Girgensons–Reinhart14:090.070.1432.3%005362.5%10.2%-24.5%3332
Pageof 1
Defense Pairs
LineGPTOIxGFxGAxG%GFGACFCACF%CF% RelxGF% RelFFFASFSA
Franson–Kulikov18:420.900.2081.9%0115478.9%29.2%31.6%134104
McCabe–Nelson18:180.370.3550.8%008753.3%0.6%-5.9%6544
Gorges–Ristolainen17:530.150.3133.0%0041126.7%-28.4%-24.9%4946
Franson–McCabe17:510.260.4138.4%0015962.5%11.2%-19.7%10856
Kulikov–Nelson16:290.020.0622.2%004833.3%-20.8%-34.2%1613
Pageof 1

Three Stars

1T. RaskBOS | G0.00 GAA, 1.000 SV%
2D. KrejciBOS | C1G 0A 1P
3M. BeleskeyBOS | LW0G 1A 1P

Box Score

ON-ICE RATES
Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
ixG
iGAx
On-Ice
Game Score
TOI
On-Ice TOIxGF%xGF% RelCF%CF% RelFF%GF%PDOxGSGS
#12 B. Gionta (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
4
0.30
-0.3
9:3435.1%-32.2%51.9%-2.0%50.0%0.0%0.889
0.60.3
15:43
#21 K. Okposo (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
5
0.46
-0.5
12:4389.0%+44.8%66.7%+19.0%75.0%1.000
1.30.9
18:21
#22 J. Larsson (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.18
-0.2
12:1149.7%-13.6%55.3%+3.4%53.1%0.0%0.900
0.40.1
16:02
#23 S. Reinhart (C)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.39
-0.4
11:5785.2%+42.6%69.6%+21.7%64.7%1.000
1.10.7
17:03
#26 M. Moulson (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.18
-0.2
11:3397.0%+52.9%70.0%+21.4%78.6%1.000
0.80.6
16:57
#27 D. Grant (C)
0
0
0
0
9
0
0.00
0.0
7:1320.1%-44.8%31.6%-27.3%26.7%1.000
-0.7-0.6
11:37
#28 Z. Girgensons (C)
0
0
0
0
4
1
0.21
-0.2
11:2668.4%+14.5%52.4%-1.1%53.3%1.000
0.40.2
12:49
#48 W. Carrier (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.21
-0.2
7:4534.0%-29.2%22.2%-38.6%18.8%1.000
-0.3-0.4
7:45
#63 T. Ennis (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
6:0423.3%-37.2%42.9%-12.3%37.5%0.0%0.750
-0.1-0.2
7:33
#73 N. Baptiste (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.04
0.0
8:502.3%-63.9%31.6%-27.3%28.6%1.000
-0.3-0.3
10:02
#82 M. Foligno (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.06
-0.1
12:0945.4%-19.4%61.8%+13.5%60.7%1.000
0.50.5
16:34
#90 R. O'Reilly (C)
0
0
0
0
4
3
0.41
-0.4
10:4499.8%+50.5%64.7%+14.0%80.0%1.000
0.70.3
21:18
#4 J. Gorges (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
8:2533.0%-28.5%25.0%-34.2%30.8%1.000
-0.3-0.3
16:42
#6 C. Franson (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
6
0.11
-0.1
16:3365.4%+18.8%69.8%+31.0%65.7%0.0%0.900
1.51.2
20:58
#29 J. McCabe (D)
0
0
0
0
4
1
0.05
-0.1
16:2344.8%-22.3%59.0%+9.9%55.2%1.000
0.10.1
18:01
#34 C. Nelson (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.04
0.0
14:4747.9%-12.5%44.4%-12.5%38.9%1.000
0.0-0.1
14:47
#55 R. Ristolainen (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
8:4334.4%-26.9%30.0%-29.7%37.5%1.000
-0.3-0.2
21:16
#77 D. Kulikov (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.09
-0.1
16:2579.5%+37.6%57.9%+7.9%60.7%0.0%0.857
1.00.7
23:34
Total
0
0
0
21
32
2.72
3.2

On-ice rates are 5-on-5. Rel compares to the team with that skater off the ice.

GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#40 R. Lehner4244.1.905+0.10.860:00L

Team Stats

BUFBOS
32Shots on Goal42
0.0%Shooting % (5v5)4.3%
.957Save % (5v5)1.000
0.957PDO (5v5)1.043
29 (51%)Faceoffs Won28 (49%)
3Power Play Chances8
0%PP%38%
63%PK%100%
0PPG3
21Penalty Minutes11
25Hits20
14Blocked Shots17
10Giveaways11
8Takeaways5

Full Game Log

1ST
00:00Period start
20:00Period end
2ND
00:00Period start
05:44GOAL (BOS): Brad Marchand (5), assists: David Pastrnak, Matt Beleskey(PP)xG 0.10
10:12GOAL (BOS): David Krejci (1), assists: Torey Krug, Ryan Spooner(PP)xG 0.24
14:41GOAL (BOS): Riley Nash (1), unassistedxG 0.02
20:00Period end
3RD
00:00Period start
09:45GOAL (BOS): David Pastrnak (8), assists: Austin Czarnik, John-Michael Liles(PP)xG 0.02
20:00Period end
20:00Game end
@ OTT (Nov 5, 2016)vs OTT (Nov 9, 2016) ›