vs TOR (Mar 5, 2018)@ OTT (Mar 8, 2018) ›

March 7, 2018

KeyBank Center | Buffalo

CGY 51 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs CGY all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
CGY2305
BUF0011
Shots on goal CGY 41, BUF 26W D. RittichL C. Johnson
Summary

CGY had the better expected goals in all situations and won 5-1.

FINISHING
Buffalo 1 goal on 1.44 xG
CGY 5 goals on 2.75 xG
IN NET
Buffalo C. Johnson .818 (-2.5 GSAx)
Buffalo R. Lehner .947 (+0.3 GSAx)
CGY D. Rittich .962 (+0.4 GSAx)
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 3
CGY 1 of 2
TURNING POINT
S. Bennett goal (P1 5:35), Sabres win chance drops from 46% to 28%
WIN DNA
0 of 8 winning traits
SHIFTS
Buffalo pinned 1:44 at 5v5 (typical 0:46)
Game Leaders
C. Nelson
1 (1G)
POINTS
C. Nelson
0.7
GAME SCORE
J. Nolan
3
SHOTS
R. O'Reilly
20:36
TOI (F)
R. Ristolainen
22:57
TOI (D)
R. Lehner
.947 (18/19)
SAVE %
Game Control
BUFCGYBUF shareCGY share
5-on-5
Expected goals0.632.4420.5%79.5%
Shot attempts315536.0%64.0%
Shot attempts, score-adjusted27.761.331.1%68.9%
High-danger chances050.0%100.0%
Power play
Goals, of chances0 of 3 (0%)1 of 2 (50%)
Expected goals0.810.1386.1%13.9%
Shot attempts11378.6%21.4%
High-danger chances10100.0%0.0%
Shorthanded expected goals0.000.180.0%100.0%
All situations
Expected goals1.442.7534.4%65.6%
Shot attempts425941.6%58.4%
High-danger chances1614.3%85.7%
How this is measured

Shot attempts include missed and blocked shots. Expected goals (xG) weigh each unblocked shot by its chance of going in; high-danger is 0.12 xG or more. Power-play goals and chances are the NHL's line, which counts a double minor as two chances and a 5-on-3 from two penalties as two, so the count can run above the number of penalties in the Full Game Log below. Score-adjusted is the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site.

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCGY

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Additional per-period stats
Each cell is BUF-CGY.
 1ST2ND3RDTotal
Faceoffs Won11-512-710-833-20
Hits9-135-44-318-20
Takeaways1-00-12-03-1
Giveaways4-44-44-312-11
PDO (5v5): BUF 0.940CGY 1.060. Shooting % plus save %. About 1.000 is neutral.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 6 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+20+100-10-20shot attemptsBUFCGY

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 46%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCGY
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 05:35S. Bennett (10) 46% to 28%-18
  2. P1 08:35M. Jankowski (12) 28% to 14%-14
  3. P2 06:01S. Monahan (30) 4% to 1%-3
  4. P2 02:21High sticking on Dougie Hamilton, 2 min 11% to 14%+3

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.

Expected Goals

Cumulative xG from the game. What is xG?

CGY 2.75xGBUF 1.44
P3 20:00
0123123

Shot Map

Every shot attempt, to scale.

xG range
Replay
P3 19:42
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

Win DNA

0 of 8 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2017–18 regular season (82 games).

Wins (25)Losses (57, 12 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersxG share 50%+, allGoalie > xGD combined 3+ ptsScored firstMore HD chances, allShot qualityDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 65% when yes, 10% when no
No
xG share 50%+ (all situations)
Sabres win 50% when yes, 19% when no
No
Goalie beat expected
Sabres win 47% when yes, 13% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 75% when yes, 20% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 54% when yes, 11% when no
No
More high-danger chances (all situations)
Sabres win 47% when yes, 21% when no
No
Better shot quality than opponent
Sabres win 42% when yes, 20% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 52% when yes, 20% when no

Shift Rhythm

Buffalo was pinned for 1:44 at 5v5, well above the typical 0:46 a game, and gave up 1 shot attempt in that time.

J. Pominville was out for 0:53 of it, the most on the team.

Calgary was pinned for 1:27 at 5v5, well above the typical 0:46 a game.

BUFCGYTypical game, 2017–18
Pinned time (5v5)1:441:270:46
Shot attempts against while pinned101
Short-rest shifts242227
xG against, skaters 40+ seconds into a shift25%40%

When Buffalo was pinned

PeriodClockPinnedSkaters (unbroken play)Attempts againstGA
P18:17 to 8:310:1400
P115:41 to 16:010:2000
P211:02 to 11:030:0100
P211:27 to 12:060:3900
P213:06 to 13:290:2310

When Calgary was pinned

PeriodClockPinnedSkaters (unbroken play)Attempts againstGA
P17:26 to 7:270:0100
P18:27 to 8:290:0200
P21:55 to 2:210:2600
P210:28 to 10:330:0500
P211:33 to 12:030:3000
How this is measured

Pinned. A team is pinned when 3 or more of its skaters on the ice are past a minute of unbroken play, at 5v5. A hemmed-in shift is an even-strength shift in which the unit was on for more than 1:00 without a whistle to change on, and stayed at even strength for most of it. A stoppage inside a shift starts the clock over, however it began: what counts is the run of play they could not get off the ice for. Only the time past the minute counts: the first minute of those shifts plays like any other stretch of the game, while past it the play tilts hard toward the end the pinned team is defending (in 2017–18, a pinned team took 22% of the shot attempts; pinned time was 1.8% of all 5v5 play). Pinned time is seconds on the clock, not each skater's seconds added up.

Short rest. An even-strength shift a skater started after less than 45 seconds on the bench, same period only (an intermission is a full rest).

Tired legs. Every shot attempt is tagged by how far into their shifts the defending skaters were, on average, at that moment (goalies left out). The row is the share of xG against that came with them 40 seconds or more in. xG covers goals, shots on goal and misses. Shots are counted from the play-by-play.

Typical game. The middle value across Buffalo games in the 2017–18 regular season, counting both teams (164 team totals), so it stands in for a league-average game. A sentence at the top only appears when a number is among the highest fifth of those, or when a goal went in while a team was pinned.

Shots at an empty net are left out of every row. None of this says why a goal went in: a unit that cannot change is pinned and tiring at the same time, so these rows describe when the danger came, not what caused it.

Shift by shift

Shift length, in order, for one Buffalo skater this game.

28 shifts, averaging 0:44. 2 hemmed-in, 3 after a short rest, 0:25 pinned.

Replay
Shift 28
Hemmed-in shiftShort rest before itGoal forGoal againstPenalty takenPower playPenalty killPeriod average and middle half of shifts (even strength)
P1avg 0:36P2avg 1:02P3avg 0:330:000:301:001:302:00151015202528Shift Number

Period averages are even strength only. Typical in 2017–18: 0:44, 0:48 (the long change), 0:46.

Line Combinations

Lines and pairs at 5v5, and how they did together.

What do TOI, CF, xG% etc. mean?
GP
Games in which this exact line/pair shared the ice together at 5v5.
TOI
Time on ice together at 5v5, meaning the whole line/pair on the ice at once, not any one player's own total. Only the seconds that exact pair or trio was the unit count, which is why a pair's TOI and xG% here differ slightly from the WOWY table, where together counts every 5v5 second the two share, whoever else is on the ice.
xGF / xGA
Expected goals for/against while this combo was on the ice, from this site's own xG model.
xG%
Share of on-ice expected goals this combo earned: xGF / (xGF + xGA). The single best read on who controlled play.
GF / GA
Actual goals for/against while this combo was on the ice together.
CF / CA (Corsi For / Against, Shot Attempts)
"Corsi" is just the hockey-analytics name for total shot attempts: shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots combined, a volume proxy for who had the puck more. CF is this combo's own attempts, CA is the opponent's.
CF%
Share of on-ice shot attempts (Corsi) this combo earned: CF / (CF + CA).
CF% Rel
This combo's CF% minus the team's own CF% in the minutes this exact combo was NOT on the ice. Positive means the combo lifted the team's play; negative means it dragged it down.
xGF% Rel
This combo's xG% minus the team's own xG% in the minutes this exact combo was NOT on the ice. Positive means the combo lifted the team's expected-goals share; negative means it dragged it down.
FF / FA
Unblocked shot attempts (also called Fenwick): shots on goal plus misses, excluding blocks. One layer closer to real scoring chances than CF/CA.
SF / SA
Shots on goal for/against while this combo was on the ice together.
Minimum Ice Time
Drag the slider on each table down to see combos with less shared ice time. Their percentages get noisier the lower you go, since a combo that barely played together can swing to 100% or 0% off a single shot.
STRENGTH
Forward Lines
LineGPTOIxGFxGAxG%GFGACFCACF%CF% RelxGF% RelFFFASFSA
O'Reilly–Girgensons–Reinhart113:080.170.2442.0%01111052.4%18.6%23.6%7867
Pominville–Larsson–Wilson110:490.180.3533.8%116940.0%4.3%15.0%6755
Okposo–Josefson–Nolan19:250.040.3111.6%0051131.3%-5.2%-9.6%5958
Pouliot–Griffith–Baptiste15:410.010.401.5%012625.0%-11.6%-20.8%2515
Pageof 1
Defense Pairs
LineGPTOIxGFxGAxG%GFGACFCACF%CF% RelxGF% RelFFFASFSA
Beaulieu–Antipin117:230.180.6621.6%0071926.9%-10.8%1.4%714713
Scandella–Ristolainen17:590.010.461.1%0161135.3%-0.8%-21.5%41028
Ristolainen–Guhle17:400.040.1423.3%015838.5%2.7%2.9%3836
Guhle–Nelson17:330.110.4819.3%1151229.4%-7.4%-1.3%41148
Scandella–Nelson17:260.140.0767.6%008280.0%46.7%49.3%7161
Pageof 1

Three Stars

1S. BennettCGY | C1G 1A 2P
2M. GiordanoCGY | D1G 1A 2P
3M. JankowskiCGY | C1G 1A 2P

Box Score

ON-ICE RATES
Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
ixG
iGAx
On-Ice
Game Score
TOI
On-Ice TOIxGF%xGF% RelCF%CF% RelFF%GF%PDOxGSGS
#20 S. Wilson (C)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.01
0.0
12:1527.5%+10.0%38.1%+2.7%41.2%50.0%1.042
0.40.5
15:13
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
1
1
0
0
3
0.34
-0.3
13:1327.4%+9.7%30.0%-7.9%33.3%50.0%1.089
0.70.5
17:19
#8 C. Nelson (D)
1
0
1
-1
0
2
0.01
+1.0
16:1129.3%+14.0%46.4%+15.4%45.8%33.3%0.900
0.00.7
17:40
#10 J. Josefson (C)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.01
0.0
12:1423.3%+3.5%40.0%+5.2%41.2%1.000
-0.3-0.2
13:13
#13 N. Baptiste (RW)
0
0
0
-1
2
1
0.01
0.0
9:452.9%-25.3%17.6%-22.9%20.0%0.0%0.875
-0.4-0.5
10:53
#17 J. Nolan (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.02
0.0
13:0612.5%-10.5%27.6%-12.8%26.9%0.0%0.938
-0.3-0.4
13:36
#21 K. Okposo (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.23
-0.2
11:2215.0%-7.0%33.3%-3.6%33.3%1.000
0.0-0.1
15:28
#22 J. Larsson (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.09
-0.1
15:0222.4%+3.2%33.3%-4.0%33.3%33.3%0.989
-0.3-0.5
18:25
#23 S. Reinhart (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.17
-0.2
15:0041.1%+25.0%54.2%+25.1%47.1%0.0%0.875
0.40.2
19:28
#25 S. Griffith (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.01
0.0
8:093.6%-22.7%28.6%-8.9%36.4%0.0%0.857
-0.3-0.3
9:26
#28 Z. Girgensons (C)
0
0
0
-2
0
2
0.06
-0.1
14:5539.7%+24.2%46.2%+14.5%42.1%0.0%0.800
0.1-0.2
17:13
#67 B. Pouliot (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.20
-0.2
8:436.6%-18.9%18.8%-21.3%21.4%0.0%0.875
-0.4-0.6
10:29
#90 R. O'Reilly (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.21
-0.2
15:4841.1%+25.0%52.2%+22.0%47.1%0.0%0.875
0.30.0
20:36
#6 M. Scandella (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.03
0.0
15:2621.5%+1.5%50.0%+20.7%50.0%0.0%0.889
0.10.0
19:33
#45 B. Guhle (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
15:1320.2%-0.4%33.3%-4.2%26.9%33.3%1.000
-0.6-0.6
17:43
#55 R. Ristolainen (D)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.02
0.0
16:537.1%-18.4%35.5%-0.9%26.9%0.0%0.867
-0.4-0.6
22:57
#82 N. Beaulieu (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.02
0.0
17:3221.6%+1.7%26.9%-13.1%33.3%1.000
-0.5-0.4
18:08
#93 V. Antipin (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
18:1319.9%-0.9%24.1%-18.0%30.4%0.0%0.933
-0.7-0.8
19:51
Total
1
2
3
4
26
1.44
-3.6

On-ice rates are 5-on-5. Rel compares to the team with that skater off the ice.

GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#40 R. Lehner1911.3.947+0.31.133:59
#31 C. Johnson2241.5.818-2.5-1.226:01L

Team Stats

CGYBUF
41Shots on Goal26
10.5%Shooting % (5v5)4.5%
.955Save % (5v5).895
1.060PDO (5v5)0.940
20 (38%)Faceoffs Won33 (62%)
2Power Play Chances3
50%PP%0%
100%PK%50%
1PPG0
8Penalty Minutes6
20Hits18
7Blocked Shots10
11Giveaways12
1Takeaways3

Full Game Log

1ST
00:00Period start
05:35GOAL (CGY): Sam Bennett (10), assists: Mark Jankowski, Travis HamonicxG 0.15
08:35GOAL (CGY): Mark Jankowski (12), assists: Sam Bennett, TJ BrodiexG 0.07
20:00Period end
2ND
00:00Period start
05:00GOAL (CGY): Mark Giordano (12), assists: Micheal Ferland, Sean MonahanxG 0.03
06:01GOAL (CGY): Sean Monahan (30), assists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ BrodiexG 0.12
18:39GOAL (CGY): Dougie Hamilton (15), assists: Mark Giordano, Johnny Gaudreau(PP)xG 0.06
20:00Period end
3RD
00:00Period start
19:42GOAL (BUF): Casey Nelson (2), assists: Jason Pominville, Scott WilsonxG 0.01
20:00Period end
20:00Game end
vs TOR (Mar 5, 2018)@ OTT (Mar 8, 2018) ›