vs BOS (Apr 6, 2025)@ CBJ (Apr 10, 2025) ›

April 8, 2025

KeyBank Center | Buffalo

CAR 03 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
CAR0000
BUF0213
Shots on goal CAR 33, BUF 18W J. ReimerL P. Kochetkov
Summary

Expected goals were even in all situations; Buffalo won 3-0.

FINISHING
Buffalo 3 goals on 2.00 xG
CAR 0 goals on 1.87 xG
IN NET
Buffalo J. Reimer 1.000 (+1.9 GSAx)
CAR P. Kochetkov .833 (-1.0 GSAx)
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 2
CAR 0 of 3
TURNING POINT
T. Thompson goal (P2 1:32), Sabres win chance rises from 46% to 68%
WIN DNA
7 of 8 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Thompson
1 (1G)
POINTS
Z. Benson
2
SHOTS
A. Tuch
0.43
XG
A. Tuch
18:12
TOI (F)
M. Samuelsson
22:38
TOI (D)
J. Reimer
1.000 (33/33)
SAVE %
Game Control
BUFCARBUF shareCAR share
5-on-5
Expected goals1.751.7150.6%49.4%
Shot attempts406239.2%60.8%
Shot attempts, score-adjusted42.160.241.1%58.9%
High-danger chances6275.0%25.0%
Power play
Goals, of chances0 of 2 (0%)0 of 3 (0%)
Expected goals0.060.1234.8%65.2%
Shot attempts1325.0%75.0%
Shorthanded expected goals0.200.00100.0%0.0%
All situations
Expected goals2.001.8751.7%48.3%
Shot attempts436739.1%60.9%
High-danger chances7277.8%22.2%
How this is measured

Shot attempts include missed and blocked shots. Expected goals (xG) weigh each unblocked shot by its chance of going in; high-danger is 0.12 xG or more. Power-play goals and chances are the NHL's line, which counts a double minor as two chances and a 5-on-3 from two penalties as two, so the count can run above the number of penalties in the Full Game Log below. Score-adjusted is the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site.

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Additional per-period stats
Each cell is BUF-CAR.
 1ST2ND3RDTotal
Faceoffs Won12-115-117-824-30
Hits13-18-61-522-12
Takeaways2-11-11-24-4
Giveaways8-36-35-319-9
PDO (5v5): BUF 1.133CAR 0.867. Shooting % plus save %. About 1.000 is neutral.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+26+130-13-26shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 45%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 01:32T. Thompson (44) 46% to 68%+22
  2. P2 16:45A. Tuch (34), shorthanded 72% to 89%+17
  3. P3 01:58J. Peterka (24) 93% to 98%+5
  4. P2 15:27Tripping on Connor Clifton, 2 min 73% to 68%-5

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.

Expected Goals

Cumulative xG from the game. What is xG?

CAR 1.87xGBUF 2.00
P3 20:00
0123123

Shot Map

Every shot attempt, to scale.

xG range
Replay
P3 18:52
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

Win DNA

7 of 8 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2024–25 regular season (82 games).

Wins (36)Losses (46, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersxG share 50%+, allGoalie > xGD combined 3+ ptsScored firstMore HD chances, allShot qualityDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 64% when yes, 19% when no
Yes
xG share 50%+ (all situations)
Sabres win 71% when yes, 25% when no
Yes
Goalie beat expected
Sabres win 60% when yes, 29% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 68% when yes, 27% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 56% when yes, 30% when no
Yes
More high-danger chances (all situations)
Sabres win 63% when yes, 32% when no
Yes
Better shot quality than opponent
Sabres win 61% when yes, 30% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 59% when yes, 29% when no

Three Stars

1J. ReimerBUF | G0.00 GAA, 1.000 SV%
2A. TuchBUF | RW1G 0A 1P
3T. ThompsonBUF | C1G 0A 1P

Box Score

Discipline
Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
ixG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#22 J. Quinn (RW)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.26
0.8
12:31
#71 R. McLeod (C)
0
1
1
+2
0
1
0.20
0.6
16:33
#72 T. Thompson (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
2
0.11
1.1
15:02
#77 J. Peterka (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
2
0.21
1.0
13:38
#89 A. Tuch (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
2
0.43
1.0
18:12
#4 B. Byram (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.01
0.8
21:25
#9 Z. Benson (LW)
0
0
0
+1
0
2
0.13
0.2
14:10
#17 J. Zucker (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.08
0.1
15:38
#19 P. Krebs (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.08
0.3
17:02
#20 J. Kulich (C)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.05
0.0
14:26
#29 B. Malenstyn (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.15
0.4
13:47
#36 N. Ostlund (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
11:00
#81 S. Lafferty (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.20
0.2
13:18
#23 M. Samuelsson (D)
0
0
0
+2
0
0
0.0
22:38
#24 J. Bernard-Docker (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.0
16:03
#25 O. Power (D)
0
0
0
+1
2
1
0.09
0.0
20:10
#26 R. Dahlin (D)
0
0
0
+1
2
0
0.02
-0.1
21:49
#75 C. Clifton (D)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.0
16:38
Total
3
3
6
6
18
2.00
6.2
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#47 J. Reimer3301.91.000+1.93.360:00W

Team Stats

CARBUF
33Shots on Goal18
0.0%Shooting % (5v5)13.3%
.867Save % (5v5)1.000
0.867PDO (5v5)1.133
30 (56%)Faceoffs Won24 (44%)
3Power Play Chances2
0%PP%0%
100%PK%100%
0PPG0
4Penalty Minutes6
12Hits22
13Blocked Shots16
9Giveaways19
4Takeaways4

Full Game Log

1ST
00:00Period start
20:00Period end
2ND
00:00Period start
01:32GOAL (BUF): Tage Thompson (44), unassistedxG 0.06
16:45GOAL (BUF): Alex Tuch (34), assists: Bowen Byram, Ryan McLeod(SH)xG 0.15
20:00Period end
3RD
00:00Period start
01:58GOAL (BUF): JJ Peterka (24), assists: Jack QuinnxG 0.19
20:00Period end
20:00Game end
vs BOS (Apr 6, 2025)@ CBJ (Apr 10, 2025) ›