April 13, 2025
Amalie Arena | Tampa
BUF 4 – 7 TBL
FINAL
| 1ST | 2ND | 3RD | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| TBL | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
TBL had the better expected goals in all situations and won 7-4.
- FINISHING
- Buffalo 4 goals on 2.55 xGTBL 7 goals on 6.16 xG
- IN NET
- Buffalo J. Reimer .774 (-0.8 GSAx)TBL J. Johansson .840 (-1.5 GSAx)
- POWER PLAY
- Buffalo 1 of 2TBL 1 of 2
- TURNING POINT
- R. McDonagh goal (P2 3:02), Sabres win chance drops from 60% to 38%
- WIN DNA
- 3 of 8 winning traits
| BUF | TBL | BUF share | TBL share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 | ||||
| Expected goals | 2.25 | 5.51 | 28.9% | 71.1% |
| Shot attempts | 50 | 66 | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Shot attempts, score-adjusted | 48.9 | 68.0 | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| High-danger chances | 5 | 13 | 27.8% | 72.2% |
| Power play | ||||
| Goals, of chances | 1 of 2 (50%) | 1 of 2 (50%) | ||
| Expected goals | 0.30 | 0.50 | 37.8% | 62.3% |
| Shot attempts | 3 | 5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| High-danger chances | 2 | 1 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Shorthanded expected goals | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| All situations | ||||
| Expected goals | 2.55 | 6.16 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| Shot attempts | 53 | 73 | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| High-danger chances | 7 | 15 | 31.8% | 68.2% |
How this is measured
Shot attempts include missed and blocked shots. Expected goals (xG) weigh each unblocked shot by its chance of going in; high-danger is 0.12 xG or more. Power-play goals and chances are the NHL's line, which counts a double minor as two chances and a 5-on-3 from two penalties as two, so the count can run above the number of penalties in the Full Game Log below. Score-adjusted is the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site.
Stats by Period
All situations, by period.
Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.
| 1ST | 2ND | 3RD | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faceoffs Won | 10-12 | 10-14 | 13-10 | 33-36 |
| Hits | 6-5 | 4-5 | 6-3 | 16-13 |
| Takeaways | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 3-8 |
| Giveaways | 7-7 | 3-4 | 7-3 | 17-14 |
Game Flow
Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.
Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.
How this is measured
Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.
Win Probability
Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.
Opened at 35%.
- P2 03:02R. McDonagh (4) 60% to 38%-22
- P1 19:52C. Clifton (1) 37% to 59%+22
- P2 06:34N. Kucherov (35) 38% to 18%-20
- P1 19:37J. Kulich (15) 19% to 37%+18
Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.
How this is measured
Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.
Shot Map
Every shot attempt, to scale.
Win DNA
3 of 8 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2024–25 regular season (82 games).
Box Score
| Player | G | A | P ▾ | +/- | PIM | SOG | ixG | Game Score | TOI | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | ||||||||||||||||||
| #26 R. Dahlin (D) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.11 | 1.7 | 24:11 | |||||||||
| #19 P. Krebs (C) | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | – | 0.7 | 17:48 | |||||||||
| #20 J. Kulich (C) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.8 | 12:56 | |||||||||
| #22 J. Quinn (RW) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.6 | 14:41 | |||||||||
| #72 T. Thompson (C) | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.9 | 15:43 | |||||||||
| #77 J. Peterka (RW) | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.6 | 16:37 | |||||||||
| #81 S. Lafferty (C) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.38 | 1.0 | 11:34 | |||||||||
| #89 A. Tuch (RW) | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.9 | 19:04 | |||||||||
| #75 C. Clifton (D) | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.9 | 19:07 | |||||||||
| #9 Z. Benson (LW) | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.1 | 15:22 | |||||||||
| #17 J. Zucker (LW) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.3 | 16:22 | |||||||||
| #29 B. Malenstyn (LW) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.2 | 11:45 | |||||||||
| #36 N. Ostlund (C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.1 | 12:44 | |||||||||
| #71 R. McLeod (C) | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | – | 0.0 | 15:47 | |||||||||
| #4 B. Byram (D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.2 | 21:59 | |||||||||
| #23 M. Samuelsson (D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.1 | 21:46 | |||||||||
| #24 J. Bernard-Docker (D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.2 | 14:08 | |||||||||
| #78 J. Bryson (D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | – | 0.0 | 15:40 | |||||||||
| Total | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 25 | 2.55 | 9.2 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | xGA | SV% | GSAx | GS | TOI ▾ | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #47 J. Reimer | 31 | 7 | 6.2 | .774 | -0.8 | -2.8 | 60:00 | L |