vs NYI (Dec 31, 2002)@ OTT (Jan 4, 2003) ›

January 3, 2003

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

CAR 36 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
CAR1203
BUF1236
Shots on goal CAR 28, BUF 34W R. MillerL K. Weekes
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 6-3.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .893
CAR K. Weekes .824
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 6
CAR 0 of 3
TURNING POINT
S. Barnes goal (P3 7:23), Sabres win chance rises from 50% to 84%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Dumont
3 (2G-1A)
POINTS
M. Satan
21:06
TOI (F)
A. Zhitnik
29:20
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.893 (25/28)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+10+50-5-10shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 50%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 07:23S. Barnes (8) 50% to 84%+34
  2. P2 12:42J. O'Neill (13) 76% to 50%-26
  3. P2 11:38M. Satan (14) 50% to 75%+25
  4. P2 04:42B. Battaglia (5) 50% to 27%-23

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2002–03 regular season (82 games).

Wins (27)Losses (45, 8 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 72% when yes, 19% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 87% when yes, 25% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 51% when yes, 24% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 45% when yes, 29% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
2
1
3
+3
0
3
2.4
16:25
#81 M. Satan (RW)
2
1
3
+1
0
5
2.6
21:06
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
2
2
+2
2
0
1.0
13:06
#37 C. Brown (C)
1
1
2
0
0
2
1.9
15:35
#41 S. Barnes (C)
1
1
2
+3
0
3
1.7
19:37
#44 A. Zhitnik (D)
0
2
2
+1
0
3
1.5
29:20
#3 J. Patrick (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.8
16:37
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
0
0
0
0.6
18:21
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.6
13:38
#18 T. Connolly (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.2
11:35
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
10:54
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
17:34
#25 V. Varada (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
16:24
#26 E. Boulton (LW)
0
0
0
0
2
0
-0.1
5:25
#55 D. Hamel (LW)
0
0
0
-2
0
2
0.2
13:32
#77 C. Gratton (C)
0
0
0
0
2
8
0.6
17:02
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
+2
0
0
0.0
19:01
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
18:12
Total
6
11
17
6
34
14.3
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller283.8930.359:56W

Team Stats

CARBUF
28Shots on Goal34
3Power Play Chances6
0%PP%17%
83%PK%100%
0PPG1
12Penalty Minutes6
2Hits4

Full Game Log

1ST
01:11GOAL (BUF): J-P Dumont (9), assists: Alexei Zhitnik, Ales Kotalik
08:52GOAL (CAR): Rod Brind'Amour (12), assists: Glen Wesley, Bates Battaglia
2ND
04:42GOAL (CAR): Bates Battaglia (5), assists: Rod Brind'Amour, Erik Cole
07:10GOAL (BUF): Curtis Brown (7), assists: Miroslav Satan, Henrik Tallinder
11:38GOAL (BUF): Miroslav Satan (14), assists: Curtis Brown
12:42GOAL (CAR): Jeff O'Neill (13), assists: Rod Brind'Amour, Bates Battaglia
3RD
07:23GOAL (BUF): Stu Barnes (8), assists: J-P Dumont, Ales Kotalik
09:59GOAL (BUF): J-P Dumont (10), assists: Stu Barnes, Brian Campbell
17:34GOAL (BUF): Miroslav Satan (15), assists: James Patrick, Alexei Zhitnik
vs NYI (Dec 31, 2002)@ OTT (Jan 4, 2003) ›