vs ATL (Nov 5, 2003)@ MTL (Nov 8, 2003) ›

November 7, 2003

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

MTL 12 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs MTL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
MTL0011
BUF0202
Shots on goal MTL 37, BUF 17W M. NoronenL J. Theodore
Summary

MTL had more shots on goal in all situations, but Buffalo won 2-1.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Noronen .973
MTL J. Theodore .882
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 3
MTL 0 of 3
TURNING POINT
D. Brière goal (P2 4:37), Sabres win chance rises from 53% to 75%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
A. Kotalik
1 (1G)
POINTS
C. Brown
19:50
TOI (F)
A. Zhitnik
22:56
TOI (D)
M. Noronen
.973 (36/37)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFMTL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 25 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+20+100-10-20shot attemptsBUFMTL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 53%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFMTL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 04:37D. Brière (3) 53% to 75%+22
  2. P2 11:27A. Kotalik (5) 77% to 92%+15
  3. P3 13:34D. Audette (2) 99% to 91%-8
  4. P1 03:13Fighting on Darren Langdon, 5 min 45% to 53%+8

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2003–04 regular season (82 games).

Wins (37)Losses (38, 4 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 88% when yes, 17% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 100% when yes, 37% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 26% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 73% when yes, 26% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
0
1
+1
5
3
1.0
15:54
#23 C. Drury (C)
0
1
1
-1
0
1
0.8
17:50
#37 C. Brown (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.9
19:50
#48 D. Brière (C)
1
0
1
-1
0
4
1.1
16:39
#44 A. Zhitnik (D)
0
1
1
0
4
1
0.3
22:56
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
1
1
0
0
0
0.6
22:16
#16 C. Taylor (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
13:58
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
17:43
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
10:12
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.1
18:49
#26 E. Boulton (LW)
0
0
0
0
5
1
0.1
3:02
#28 J. Botterill (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
12:42
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.0
7:29
#81 M. Satan (RW)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
19:39
#8 R. Fitzpatrick (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
19:19
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
17:56
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.0
17:17
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
20:27
Total
2
4
6
16
17
5.2
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#35 M. Noronen371.9732.960:00W

Team Stats

MTLBUF
37Shots on Goal17
3Power Play Chances3
0%PP%33%
67%PK%100%
0PPG1
16Penalty Minutes16
15Hits19
8Blocked Shots5
10Giveaways14
1Takeaways1

Full Game Log

2ND
04:37GOAL (BUF): Daniel Brière (3), assists: Chris Drury, Dmitri Kalinin
11:27GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (5), assists: Curtis Brown, Alexei Zhitnik
3RD
13:34GOAL (MTL): Donald Audette (2), assists: Richard Zednik, Patrice Brisebois
vs ATL (Nov 5, 2003)@ MTL (Nov 8, 2003) ›