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January 27, 2004

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

MTL 14 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs MTL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
MTL0101
BUF0134
Shots on goal MTL 30, BUF 28W M. BironL J. Theodore
Summary

Shots on goal were even in all situations; Buffalo won 4-1.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Biron .967
MTL J. Theodore .857
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 4
MTL 0 of 4
TURNING POINT
M. Afinogenov goal (P3 7:24), Sabres win chance rises from 50% to 84%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
A. Kotalik
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
J. Hecht
20:24
TOI (F)
A. Zhitnik
23:36
TOI (D)
M. Biron
.967 (29/30)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFMTL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+9+50-5-9shot attemptsBUFMTL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 47%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFMTL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 07:24M. Afinogenov (9) 50% to 84%+34
  2. P2 07:08S. Koivu (8) 48% to 24%-24
  3. P2 13:27A. Zhitnik (4) 25% to 48%+23
  4. P1 14:49Fighting on Andrew Peters, 5 min 48% to 39%-9

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2003–04 regular season (82 games).

Wins (37)Losses (38, 4 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 88% when yes, 17% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 100% when yes, 37% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 26% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 73% when yes, 26% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
1
2
+1
0
4
1.8
15:42
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
0
2
2
+1
0
0
1.1
15:45
#23 C. Drury (C)
1
1
2
+1
0
4
1.8
17:45
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.9
12:50
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
3
1.0
12:41
#81 M. Satan (RW)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.6
18:59
#5 A. Delmore (D)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.8
14:40
#44 A. Zhitnik (D)
1
0
1
0
2
5
1.1
23:36
#15 M. Bartovic (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
14:33
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.3
10:08
#37 C. Brown (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.2
15:03
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
0
0
0
2
4
0.2
18:48
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
20:24
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
5
0
0.0
3:28
#8 R. Fitzpatrick (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.0
20:11
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.3
19:56
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.0
23:07
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
14:24
Total
4
7
11
11
28
10.2
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#43 M. Biron301.9672.260:00W

Team Stats

MTLBUF
30Shots on Goal28
4Power Play Chances4
0%PP%50%
50%PK%100%
0PPG2
13Penalty Minutes13
12Hits21
10Blocked Shots13
7Giveaways22
3Takeaways5

Full Game Log

2ND
07:08GOAL (MTL): Saku Koivu (8), assists: Michael Ryder, Jan Bulis
13:27GOAL (BUF): Alexei Zhitnik (4), assists: Andy Delmore, J-P Dumont
3RD
07:24GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (9), assists: Derek Roy, Miroslav Satan
14:11GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (11), assists: Chris Drury, J-P Dumont
17:34GOAL (BUF): Chris Drury (9), assists: Ales Kotalik
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