vs TOR (Mar 15, 2004)@ TBL (Mar 18, 2004) ›

March 17, 2004

Philips Arena | Atlanta

BUF 43 ATL

FINAL / OT

Head-to-Head vs ATL all-time
1ST2ND3RDOTT
BUF10214
ATL02103
Shots on goal BUF 33, ATL 23W M. BironL P. Nurminen
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 4-3 in overtime.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Biron .870
ATL P. Nurminen .879
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 9
ATL 2 of 6
TURNING POINT
D. Roy goal (OT 0:15), Sabres win chance rises from 50% to 100%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Hecht
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
M. Satan
26:18
TOI (F)
D. Kalinin
31:08
TOI (D)
M. Biron
.870 (20/23)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFATL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

OT 0:15
+10+50-5-10shot attemptsBUFATL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 49%.

OT 0:15
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFATL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. OT 00:15D. Roy (7) 50% to 100%+50
  2. P3 13:47J. Hecht (12) 9% to 50%+41
  3. P2 14:56A. Sutton (4) 46% to 23%-23
  4. P2 03:12I. Kovalchuk (38) 73% to 49%-24

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2003–04 regular season (82 games).

Wins (37)Losses (38, 4 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 88% when yes, 17% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 100% when yes, 37% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 26% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 73% when yes, 26% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#55 J. Hecht (C)
1
1
2
+1
2
3
1.4
25:40
#9 D. Roy (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
3
1.0
22:34
#15 M. Bartovic (RW)
0
1
1
+1
4
3
0.9
14:03
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
1
0
1
0
2
3
0.8
23:16
#22 A. Mair (C)
1
0
1
0
5
3
1.0
8:08
#25 M. Grier (RW)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.7
19:07
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
1
1
-1
0
2
0.9
19:16
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
1
1
0
0
3
0.8
15:01
#3 J. Patrick (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.6
20:04
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
0
0
4
0.9
19:11
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
3
0.9
31:08
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
3:05
#26 E. Boulton (LW)
0
0
0
0
5
0
0.0
3:47
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
5
1
0.7
4:06
#81 M. Satan (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
26:18
#4 B. Brown (D)
0
0
0
-1
5
0
0.1
10:47
#34 J. Jillson (D)
0
0
0
0
17
2
0.0
8:43
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
0
4
1
-0.2
16:24
Total
4
8
12
49
33
10.5
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#43 M. Biron233.870-0.258:43W

Team Stats

BUFATL
33Shots on Goal23
9Power Play Chances6
22%PP%33%
67%PK%78%
2PPG2
53Penalty Minutes72
15Hits26
4Blocked Shots8
7Giveaways11
2Takeaways5

Full Game Log

1ST
19:04GOAL (BUF): J-P Dumont (19), assists: Daniel Brière, Jochen Hecht
2ND
03:12GOAL (ATL): Ilya Kovalchuk (38), assists: Shawn McEachern, Ronald Petrovicky
14:56GOAL (ATL): Andy Sutton (4), assists: Daniel Tjarnqvist
3RD
00:37GOAL (ATL): Andy Sutton (5), assists: Dany Heatley, Shawn McEachern
12:23GOAL (BUF): Adam Mair (5), assists: Mike Grier, Maxim Afinogenov
13:47GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (12), assists: Milan Bartovic, Henrik Tallinder
OT
00:15GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (7), assists: Dmitri Kalinin, James Patrick
vs TOR (Mar 15, 2004)@ TBL (Mar 18, 2004) ›