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March 18, 2004

St. Pete Times Forum | Tampa

BUF 13 TBL

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs TBL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF0101
TBL0123
Shots on goal BUF 26, TBL 26W N. KhabibulinL M. Noronen
Summary

Shots on goal were even in all situations; Buffalo lost 1-3.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Noronen .920
TBL N. Khabibulin .962
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 4
TBL 0 of 5
TURNING POINT
T. Taylor goal (P3 0:52), Sabres win chance drops from 43% to 15%
WIN DNA
0 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Hecht
1 (1G)
POINTS
M. Satan
4
SHOTS
M. Satan
25:13
TOI (F)
D. Kalinin
23:48
TOI (D)
M. Noronen
.920 (23/25)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFTBL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+7+40-4-7shot attemptsBUFTBL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 38%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFTBL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 00:52T. Taylor (7) 43% to 15%-28
  2. P2 16:02J. Hecht (13) 17% to 42%+25
  3. P2 15:07C. Stillman (24) 42% to 17%-25
  4. P2 05:05Fighting on Cory Sarich, 5 min 35% to 44%+9

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

0 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2003–04 regular season (82 games).

Wins (37)Losses (38, 4 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 88% when yes, 17% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 100% when yes, 37% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 26% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 73% when yes, 26% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#55 J. Hecht (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
1
0.8
17:22
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
+1
4
0
0.3
11:49
#34 J. Jillson (D)
0
1
1
0
0
3
0.9
15:51
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.1
24:02
#15 M. Bartovic (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
17:42
#16 C. Taylor (C)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
7:07
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
0
0
0
-2
4
3
-0.1
13:48
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
2
1
-0.1
13:12
#25 M. Grier (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.3
16:35
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.1
17:05
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
-1
7
0
-0.3
15:00
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
+1
5
0
-0.1
1:24
#81 M. Satan (RW)
0
0
0
-2
2
4
0.2
25:13
#3 J. Patrick (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
20:05
#4 B. Brown (D)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.1
14:55
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
23:48
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
11:37
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.1
16:30
Total
1
2
3
24
26
2.9
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#35 M. Noronen252.9200.859:30L

Team Stats

BUFTBL
26Shots on Goal26
4Power Play Chances5
0%PP%0%
100%PK%100%
0PPG0
24Penalty Minutes24
8Hits11
5Blocked Shots9
6Giveaways10
5Takeaways14

Full Game Log

2ND
15:07GOAL (TBL): Cory Stillman (24), assists: Brad Richards, Pavel Kubina
16:02GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (13), assists: Jeff Jillson, Henrik Tallinder
3RD
00:52GOAL (TBL): Tim Taylor (7), assists: Dave Andreychuk
19:49GOAL (TBL): Martin St. Louis (35), assists: Tim Taylor, Darryl Sydor
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