@ NYI (Nov 23, 2005)@ WSH (Nov 27, 2005) ›

November 25, 2005

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

MTL 13 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs MTL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
MTL0011
BUF0213
Shots on goal MTL 41, BUF 31W M. BironL Y. Danis
Summary

MTL had more shots on goal in all situations, but Buffalo won 3-1.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Biron .976
MTL Y. Danis .903
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 4
MTL 1 of 5
TURNING POINT
A. Kotalik goal (P2 6:30), Sabres win chance rises from 52% to 74%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Connolly
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
T. Connolly
20:42
TOI (F)
T. Numminen
24:37
TOI (D)
M. Biron
.976 (40/41)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFMTL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+10+50-5-10shot attemptsBUFMTL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 52%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFMTL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 06:30A. Kotalik (12) 52% to 74%+22
  2. P2 11:56B. Campbell (5) 76% to 91%+15
  3. P3 03:38R. Zednik (7) 95% to 81%-14
  4. P3 13:31Hooking on Maxim Afinogenov, 2 min 91% to 86%-5

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2005–06 regular season (82 games).

Wins (52)Losses (30, 6 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 90% when yes, 19% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 89% when yes, 51% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 80% when yes, 43% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 80% when yes, 45% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#19 T. Connolly (C)
1
1
2
+1
0
4
1.7
20:42
#51 B. Campbell (D)
1
1
2
0
0
1
1.4
16:40
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
4
1.1
19:20
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.8
11:43
#23 C. Drury (C)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.8
17:33
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.6
15:38
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
0
0
3
1.2
24:37
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.5
18:00
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
3:20
#25 M. Grier (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
18:23
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
12:21
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
17:20
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
4
7
0.2
17:00
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
2:23
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+1
2
0
0.1
20:26
#8 R. Fitzpatrick (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
15:11
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+1
4
0
-0.3
18:47
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
21:18
Total
3
6
9
10
31
8.8
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#43 M. Biron411.9763.359:39W

Team Stats

MTLBUF
41Shots on Goal31
5Power Play Chances4
20%PP%50%
50%PK%80%
1PPG2
8Penalty Minutes10
13Hits10
14Blocked Shots16
8Giveaways17
9Takeaways12

Full Game Log

2ND
06:30GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (12), assists: Adam Mair, Tim Connolly
11:56GOAL (BUF): Brian Campbell (5), assists: Chris Drury, Thomas Vanek
3RD
03:38GOAL (MTL): Richard Zednik (7), assists: Andrei Markov, Saku Koivu
16:58GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (6), assists: Teppo Numminen, Brian Campbell
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