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May 30, 2006

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

CAR 12 BUF

FINAL / OT

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-timeFull Round 3 series breakdown
1ST2ND3RDOTT
CAR00101
BUF10012
Shots on goal CAR 26, BUF 31W R. MillerL C. Ward
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 2-1 in overtime.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .962
CAR C. Ward .935
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 5
CAR 0 of 3
TURNING POINT
D. Brière goal (OT 4:22), Sabres win chance rises from 53% to 100%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
D. Brière
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
D. Brière
23:21
TOI (F)
T. Lydman
27:41
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.962 (25/26)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 13 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

OT 4:22
+12+60-6-12shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 56%.

OT 4:22
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. OT 04:22D. Brière (8) 53% to 100%+47
  2. P3 16:07B. Hedican (2) 94% to 53%-41
  3. P1 04:56J. Dumont (7) 55% to 72%+17
  4. OT 02:28Boarding on Doug Weight, 2 min 53% to 61%+8

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to sudden-death overtime. The opening value comes from both teams' regular-season goals for and against, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2005–06 regular season (82 games).

Wins (52)Losses (30, 6 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 90% when yes, 19% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 89% when yes, 51% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 80% when yes, 43% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 80% when yes, 45% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#48 D. Brière (C)
1
1
2
+1
0
4
2.0
23:21
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
0
0
0
0.6
21:02
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
1
0
1
+1
2
3
0.9
16:18
#8 R. Fitzpatrick (D)
0
1
1
-1
0
0
0.9
25:17
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
1
1
0
2
2
0.7
26:58
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.3
16:29
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
7:15
#23 C. Drury (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
19:13
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.3
13:30
#25 M. Grier (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.2
16:06
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
10:30
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
+1
0
3
0.8
14:40
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
16:34
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
20:34
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.4
27:41
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.1
4:13
#33 D. Janik (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
10:10
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
0
2
2
0.2
26:19
Total
2
4
6
6
31
7.9
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller261.9621.864:02W

Team Stats

CARBUF
26Shots on Goal31
3Power Play Chances5
0%PP%20%
80%PK%100%
0PPG1
10Penalty Minutes6
19Hits36
11Blocked Shots26
20Giveaways19
4Takeaways6

Full Game Log

1ST
04:56GOAL (BUF): J-P Dumont (7), assists: Daniel Brière, Brian Campbell
3RD
16:07GOAL (CAR): Bret Hedican (2), assists: Matt Cullen, Cory Stillman
OT
04:22GOAL (BUF): Daniel Brière (8), assists: Rory Fitzpatrick, Derek Roy
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