vs MTL (Oct 6, 2006) ›

October 4, 2006

RBC Center | Raleigh

BUF 32 CAR

FINAL / SO

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-time
1ST2ND3RDOTSOT
BUF110013
CAR110002
Shots on goal BUF 32, CAR 34W R. MillerL C. Ward
Summary

Shot attempts were even in all situations; Buffalo won 3-2 in a shootout.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .941
CAR C. Ward .938
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 9
CAR 1 of 9
TURNING POINT
C. Drury goal (P2 15:32), Sabres win chance rises from 22% to 48%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
C. Drury
1 (1G)
POINTS
C. Drury
7
SHOTS
C. Drury
22:55
TOI (F)
J. Spacek
22:58
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.941 (32/34)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

OT 4:54
+10+50-5-10shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 47%.

OT 5:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 15:32C. Drury (1) 22% to 48%+26
  2. P2 12:41E. Cole (1) 45% to 22%-23
  3. P1 14:42E. Staal (1) 67% to 47%-20
  4. P1 09:09D. Kalinin (1) 47% to 66%+19

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2006–07 regular season (82 games).

Wins (53)Losses (29, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 82% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 84% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 73% when yes, 53% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 78% when yes, 39% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
+1
2
2
0.9
21:03
#13 J. Novotny (C)
0
1
1
0
2
1
0.5
12:02
#23 C. Drury (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
7
1.6
22:55
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
+1
2
2
0.6
20:27
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
0
0
0
0.9
22:50
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
1
0
1
0
0
1
1.2
18:34
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
+1
2
3
0.1
15:12
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
2
1
-0.1
5:28
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.4
17:01
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
4
0
0.1
9:36
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
15:06
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
0
0
0
4
2
-0.1
20:29
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.4
17:26
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.5
20:34
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
1:19
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+1
2
0
0.0
20:54
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
22:58
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.6
17:59
Total
2
4
6
20
32
7.8
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller342.9411.765:00W

Team Stats

BUFCAR
32Shots on Goal34
9Power Play Chances9
0%PP%11%
89%PK%100%
0PPG1
20Penalty Minutes20
16Hits24
28Blocked Shots17
11Giveaways10
10Takeaways7

Full Game Log

1ST
09:09GOAL (BUF): Dmitri Kalinin (1), assists: Teppo Numminen, Jiri Novotny
14:42GOAL (CAR): Eric Staal (1), assists: Ray Whitney, Cam Ward
2ND
12:41GOAL (CAR): Erik Cole (1), assists: Ray Whitney, Justin Williams
15:32GOAL (BUF): Chris Drury (1), assists: Derek Roy, Henrik Tallinder
SO
00:00GOAL (BUF): Daniel Brière, assists: Cam Ward(SO)
vs MTL (Oct 6, 2006) ›