vs OTT (Nov 21, 2007)@ MTL (Nov 24, 2007) ›

November 23, 2007

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

MTL 24 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs MTL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
MTL0112
BUF1124
Shots on goal MTL 32, BUF 32W R. MillerL C. Price
Summary

Shots on goal were even in all situations; Buffalo won 4-2.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .938
MTL C. Price .903
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 3
MTL 1 of 6
TURNING POINT
T. Vanek goal (P3 11:27), Sabres win chance rises from 52% to 87%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Connolly
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
T. Vanek
5
SHOTS
J. Hecht
21:29
TOI (F)
T. Lydman
24:53
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.938 (30/32)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFMTL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 15 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+5+30-3-5shot attemptsBUFMTL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 49%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFMTL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 11:27T. Vanek (5) 52% to 87%+35
  2. P3 04:56T. Plekanec (7) 82% to 49%-33
  3. P1 08:56D. Roy (8) 50% to 69%+19
  4. P2 07:39T. Connolly (2) 73% to 89%+16

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2007–08 regular season (82 games).

Wins (39)Losses (43, 12 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 76% when yes, 23% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 82% when yes, 35% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 31% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 56% when yes, 35% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#19 T. Connolly (C)
1
1
2
+2
0
4
1.7
12:21
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
2
2
-1
0
0
1.2
19:30
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
2
2
+1
2
2
1.4
15:41
#9 D. Roy (C)
1
0
1
0
0
3
1.1
19:56
#20 D. Paille (LW)
1
0
1
+1
0
2
1.1
17:56
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
0
1
0
2
5
1.0
16:23
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.7
14:54
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.9
11:26
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.9
22:52
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
1
-0.1
13:16
#37 M. Ryan (C)
0
0
0
-1
2
1
-0.1
7:59
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.0
12:19
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
4
0.4
21:29
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
1:26
#4 N. Pratt (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
13:32
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.2
24:53
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.3
21:25
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+1
4
3
0.1
22:39
Total
4
8
12
12
32
10.9
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller322.9381.559:44W

Team Stats

MTLBUF
32Shots on Goal32
6Power Play Chances3
17%PP%67%
33%PK%83%
1PPG2
6Penalty Minutes12
19Hits13
18Blocked Shots16
5Giveaways16
4Takeaways4

Full Game Log

1ST
08:56GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (8), assists: Maxim Afinogenov, Jason Pominville
2ND
07:39GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (2), assists: Brian Campbell, Paul Gaustad
09:45GOAL (MTL): Chris Higgins (9), assists: Mark Streit, Saku Koivu
3RD
04:56GOAL (MTL): Tomas Plekanec (7), assists: Andrei Kostitsyn
11:27GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (5), assists: Nathan Paetsch, Jason Pominville
19:46GOAL (BUF): Daniel Paille (5), assists: Maxim Afinogenov, Tim Connolly
vs OTT (Nov 21, 2007)@ MTL (Nov 24, 2007) ›