@ WSH (Feb 26, 2003)@ NYI (Mar 1, 2003) ›

February 28, 2003

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

DAL 35 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs DAL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
DAL1203
BUF2125
Shots on goal DAL 34, BUF 20W M. BironL R. Tugnutt
Summary

DAL had more shots on goal in all situations, but Buffalo won 5-3.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Biron .912
DAL R. Tugnutt .750
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 4
DAL 1 of 5
TURNING POINT
C. Brown goal (P3 7:38), Sabres win chance rises from 43% to 79%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
M. Satan
3 (3A)
POINTS
M. Satan
23:17
TOI (F)
A. Zhitnik
28:10
TOI (D)
M. Biron
.912 (31/34)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFDAL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 13 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+16+80-8-16shot attemptsBUFDAL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 36%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFDAL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 07:38C. Brown (13) 43% to 79%+36
  2. P2 19:09D. Hatcher (6) 68% to 41%-27
  3. P2 12:17S. Barnes (10) 63% to 83%+20
  4. P1 04:42A. Kotalik (15) 36% to 56%+20

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2002–03 regular season (82 games).

Wins (27)Losses (45, 8 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 72% when yes, 19% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 87% when yes, 25% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 51% when yes, 24% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 45% when yes, 29% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#81 M. Satan (RW)
0
3
3
+4
0
0
2.1
23:17
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
1
2
+2
2
2
1.5
18:28
#28 J. Botterill (LW)
1
1
2
0
0
3
1.5
13:57
#41 S. Barnes (C)
1
1
2
+1
0
3
1.6
20:23
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.9
13:19
#37 C. Brown (C)
1
0
1
+2
0
3
1.1
18:08
#4 R. Warrener (D)
0
1
1
+2
0
1
0.9
17:59
#44 A. Zhitnik (D)
0
1
1
-1
0
2
0.7
28:10
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
1
1
0
2
0
0.4
25:39
#51 B. Campbell (D)
1
0
1
+2
0
2
0.9
18:57
#18 T. Connolly (C)
0
0
0
-1
2
0
0.0
11:29
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
-1
2
1
0.0
11:10
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
14:41
#32 R. Ray (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
3:28
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
14:29
#77 C. Gratton (C)
0
0
0
0
4
0
-0.1
15:14
#8 R. Fitzpatrick (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.2
15:52
#21 R. Hecl (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
9:42
Total
5
10
15
12
20
11.7
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#43 M. Biron343.9120.959:57W

Team Stats

DALBUF
34Shots on Goal20
5Power Play Chances4
20%PP%25%
75%PK%80%
1PPG1
10Penalty Minutes12
12Hits14
7Blocked Shots10
2Giveaways12
2Takeaways2

Full Game Log

1ST
04:42GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (15), assists: Miroslav Satan, Alexei Zhitnik
05:33GOAL (BUF): Brian Campbell (1), assists: Miroslav Satan, Jason Botterill
09:24GOAL (DAL): Philippe Boucher (5), assists: Mike Modano, Scott Young
2ND
12:17GOAL (BUF): Stu Barnes (10), assists: Rhett Warrener, Miroslav Satan
17:48GOAL (DAL): Jere Lehtinen (26), assists: Niko Kapanen, Steve Ott
19:09GOAL (DAL): Derian Hatcher (6), assists: Mike Modano, Philippe Boucher
3RD
07:38GOAL (BUF): Curtis Brown (13), assists: Ales Kotalik, Dmitri Kalinin
18:31GOAL (BUF): Jason Botterill (1), assists: J-P Dumont, Stu Barnes
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