vs TBL (Mar 14, 2003)vs PHI (Mar 18, 2003) ›

March 15, 2003

Philips Arena | Atlanta

BUF 35 ATL

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs ATL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF1113
ATL0325
Shots on goal BUF 39, ATL 24W P. NurminenL M. Biron
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and lost 3-5.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Biron .826
ATL P. Nurminen .923
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 5
ATL 0 of 4
TURNING POINT
V. Kozlov goal (P3 15:58), Sabres win chance drops from 50% to 7%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Connolly
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
J. Hecht
8
SHOTS
J. Hecht
20:17
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
26:05
TOI (D)
M. Biron
.826 (19/23)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFATL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+18+90-9-18shot attemptsBUFATL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 51%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFATL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 15:58V. Kozlov (20) 50% to 7%-43
  2. P3 02:48T. Pyatt (10) 20% to 51%+31
  3. P2 18:43I. Kovalchuk (33) 51% to 22%-29
  4. P2 16:39T. Connolly (11) 26% to 51%+25

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2002–03 regular season (82 games).

Wins (27)Losses (45, 8 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 72% when yes, 19% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 87% when yes, 25% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 51% when yes, 24% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 45% when yes, 29% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#18 T. Connolly (C)
1
1
2
0
0
1
1.5
18:30
#81 M. Satan (RW)
0
2
2
-1
2
1
1.5
18:48
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
3
1.0
18:47
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
1
0
1
-1
0
1
0.8
11:48
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
1
1
0
0
2
0.9
12:01
#16 C. Taylor (C)
0
0
0
0
2
0
-0.1
12:34
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
4
0.3
18:01
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
-2
0
3
0.2
10:00
#26 E. Boulton (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
6:37
#28 J. Botterill (LW)
0
0
0
-1
2
3
0.1
8:28
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
0
0
-2
0
6
0.5
17:25
#71 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
-2
0
8
0.6
20:17
#3 J. Patrick (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
21:08
#4 R. Warrener (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
22:14
#8 R. Fitzpatrick (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.2
19:08
#33 D. Janik (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
7:41
#44 A. Zhitnik (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
3
0.1
23:46
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
-4
0
2
0.2
26:05
Total
3
4
7
8
39
8.0
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#43 M. Biron234.826-1.159:58L

Team Stats

BUFATL
39Shots on Goal24
5Power Play Chances4
20%PP%0%
100%PK%80%
1PPG0
8Penalty Minutes10
7Hits15
10Blocked Shots10
6Giveaways12
6Takeaways5

Full Game Log

1ST
10:09GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (19), assists: Tim Connolly, Miroslav Satan
2ND
03:00GOAL (ATL): Lubos Bartecko (5), assists: Dany Heatley, Chris Tamer
08:19GOAL (ATL): Dany Heatley (31), unassisted
16:39GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (11), assists: Miroslav Satan
18:43GOAL (ATL): Ilya Kovalchuk (33), assists: Pasi Nurminen
3RD
02:48GOAL (BUF): Taylor Pyatt (10), assists: Maxim Afinogenov
15:58GOAL (ATL): Vyacheslav Kozlov (20), assists: Chris Tamer
19:53GOAL (ATL): Marc Savard (12), unassisted
vs TBL (Mar 14, 2003)vs PHI (Mar 18, 2003) ›