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December 23, 2005

St. Pete Times Forum | Tampa

BUF 41 TBL

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs TBL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF1214
TBL1001
Shots on goal BUF 31, TBL 31W R. MillerL J. Grahame
Summary

Shots on goal were even in all situations; Buffalo won 4-1.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .968
TBL J. Grahame .900
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 5
TBL 0 of 7
TURNING POINT
C. Drury goal (P2 6:41), Sabres win chance rises from 48% to 70%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
H. Tallinder
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
D. Roy
18:48
TOI (F)
R. Fitzpatrick
21:51
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.968 (30/31)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFTBL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 23 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+7+40-4-7shot attemptsBUFTBL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 47%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFTBL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 06:41C. Drury (12) 48% to 70%+22
  2. P1 06:15T. Vanek (9) 29% to 47%+18
  3. P1 02:17V. Prospal (16) 47% to 30%-17
  4. P2 10:04H. Tallinder (2) 72% to 88%+16

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2005–06 regular season (82 games).

Wins (52)Losses (30, 6 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 90% when yes, 19% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 89% when yes, 51% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 80% when yes, 43% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 80% when yes, 45% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
2
2
+2
0
1
1.5
11:12
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
1
1
2
+2
2
4
1.6
19:21
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
-1
0
4
1.0
18:48
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
6
1.2
12:18
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.6
18:30
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.6
10:27
#23 C. Drury (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
1
0.8
16:36
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
0
1
0
0
3
1.0
13:05
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.8
17:26
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
+1
4
1
0.3
17:33
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
-1
2
2
0.0
7:31
#25 M. Grier (RW)
0
0
0
+2
2
1
0.0
14:30
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.0
12:23
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.3
15:18
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+2
2
2
0.2
19:00
#8 R. Fitzpatrick (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.1
21:51
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
16:43
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.1
21:14
Total
4
8
12
14
31
10.0
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller311.9682.360:00W

Team Stats

BUFTBL
31Shots on Goal31
5Power Play Chances7
20%PP%0%
100%PK%80%
1PPG0
14Penalty Minutes10
11Hits12
14Blocked Shots3
4Giveaways16
7Takeaways5

Full Game Log

1ST
02:17GOAL (TBL): Vinny Prospal (16), assists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Nolan Pratt
06:15GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (9), assists: Derek Roy, Henrik Tallinder
2ND
06:41GOAL (BUF): Chris Drury (12), assists: Jochen Hecht, Teppo Numminen
10:04GOAL (BUF): Henrik Tallinder (2), assists: Paul Gaustad, Daniel Paille
3RD
17:30GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (16), assists: Paul Gaustad, Tim Connolly
@ FLA (Dec 22, 2005)vs NYI (Dec 26, 2005) ›