@ TOR (Dec 29, 2005)vs FLA (Jan 1, 2006) ›

December 30, 2005

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

ATL 14 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs ATL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
ATL0011
BUF0224
Shots on goal ATL 35, BUF 29W R. MillerL K. Lehtonen
Summary

ATL had more shots on goal in all situations, but Buffalo won 4-1.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .971
ATL K. Lehtonen .862
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 7
ATL 0 of 8
TURNING POINT
C. Drury goal (P2 0:51), Sabres win chance rises from 56% to 75%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
C. Drury
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
D. Roy
4
SHOTS
J. Hecht
22:13
TOI (F)
T. Lydman
22:49
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.971 (34/35)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFATL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 21 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+11+60-6-11shot attemptsBUFATL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 55%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFATL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 00:51C. Drury (14) 56% to 75%+19
  2. P2 11:31T. Vanek (11) 79% to 91%+12
  3. P1 19:29Interference on Patrik Stefan, 2 min 54% to 58%+4
  4. P1 15:45Hooking on Teppo Numminen, 2 min 55% to 51%-4

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2005–06 regular season (82 games).

Wins (52)Losses (30, 6 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 90% when yes, 19% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 89% when yes, 51% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 80% when yes, 43% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 80% when yes, 45% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
2
2
+1
2
4
1.6
19:04
#23 C. Drury (C)
1
1
2
0
0
1
1.7
19:07
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
1
1
0
4
1
0.8
11:49
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
1
1
-1
0
0
0.7
20:32
#25 M. Grier (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
3
1.0
16:20
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
0
1
0
0
3
1.0
12:37
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
3
1.0
15:43
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
1
1
0
2
1
0.6
22:49
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
-1
4
1
0.4
18:33
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
1
1
-1
0
2
0.8
16:55
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
5:18
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
6:59
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
16:34
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
+1
0
4
0.3
22:13
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
2:57
#8 R. Fitzpatrick (D)
0
0
0
+1
4
0
-0.1
15:27
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+2
0
1
0.3
18:55
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
22:12
Total
4
8
12
16
29
10.4
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller351.9712.759:56W

Team Stats

ATLBUF
35Shots on Goal29
8Power Play Chances7
0%PP%29%
71%PK%100%
0PPG2
16Penalty Minutes18
9Hits12
15Blocked Shots14
6Giveaways11
1Takeaways7

Full Game Log

2ND
00:51GOAL (BUF): Chris Drury (14), assists: Tim Connolly, Brian Campbell
11:31GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (11), assists: Ales Kotalik, Derek Roy
3RD
13:25GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (9), assists: Derek Roy, Teppo Numminen
13:54GOAL (ATL): Marc Savard (17), assists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Greg De Vries
14:53GOAL (BUF): Mike Grier (5), assists: Chris Drury, Toni Lydman
@ TOR (Dec 29, 2005)vs FLA (Jan 1, 2006) ›