@ ATL (Mar 20, 2006)vs OTT (Mar 24, 2006) ›

March 22, 2006

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

CAR 43 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
CAR0404
BUF0033
Shots on goal CAR 25, BUF 27W M. GerberL R. Miller
Summary

Shots on goal were even in all situations; Buffalo lost 3-4.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .840
CAR M. Gerber .889
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 4
CAR 0 of 5
TURNING POINT
K. Adams goal (P2 6:43), Sabres win chance drops from 52% to 30%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Novotny
1 (1G)
POINTS
D. Brière
21:08
TOI (F)
T. Numminen
22:30
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.840 (21/25)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 27 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+6+30-3-6shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 53%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 06:43K. Adams (14) 52% to 30%-22
  2. P2 08:46C. Stillman (18) 29% to 13%-16
  3. P3 12:54J. Novotny (2) 1% to 10%+9
  4. P2 17:03A. Babchuk (5) 9% to 3%-6

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2005–06 regular season (82 games).

Wins (52)Losses (30, 6 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 90% when yes, 19% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 89% when yes, 51% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 80% when yes, 43% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 80% when yes, 45% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
-1
0
0
0.9
18:04
#13 J. Novotny (C)
1
0
1
0
0
3
1.0
15:02
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
0
1
0
0
2
1.1
18:49
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.6
10:10
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
6
1.3
11:21
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
1
1
0
2
1
0.8
21:08
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
1
1
0
0
4
0.9
16:22
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
1
1
0
2
1
0.9
21:19
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
-1
2
2
0.6
19:54
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
-1
2
1
-0.1
13:54
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
15:08
#23 C. Drury (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
15:02
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
+1
2
1
0.1
7:47
#25 M. Grier (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
2
0.0
10:36
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
22:30
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
14:18
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
2
0.0
19:24
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
15:55
Total
3
6
9
14
27
8.2
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller254.840-0.959:17L

Team Stats

CARBUF
25Shots on Goal27
5Power Play Chances4
0%PP%0%
100%PK%100%
0PPG0
14Penalty Minutes14
17Hits12
15Blocked Shots9
11Giveaways17
7Takeaways5

Full Game Log

2ND
06:43GOAL (CAR): Kevyn Adams (14), assists: Justin Williams, Rod Brind'Amour
08:46GOAL (CAR): Cory Stillman (18), assists: Eric Staal, Oleg Tverdovsky
17:03GOAL (CAR): Anton Babchuk (5), assists: Matt Cullen, Frantisek Kaberle
18:15GOAL (CAR): Justin Williams (25), assists: Rod Brind'Amour
3RD
02:50GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (16), assists: Toni Lydman, Paul Gaustad
10:56GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (24), assists: Derek Roy, Maxim Afinogenov
12:54GOAL (BUF): Jiri Novotny (2), assists: Daniel Brière, Henrik Tallinder
@ ATL (Mar 20, 2006)vs OTT (Mar 24, 2006) ›