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November 10, 2006

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

FLA 45 BUF

FINAL / OT

Head-to-Head vs FLA all-time
1ST2ND3RDOTT
FLA11204
BUF02215
Shots on goal FLA 19, BUF 26W M. BironL A. Auld
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 5-4 in overtime.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Biron .789
FLA A. Auld .808
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 6
FLA 0 of 3
TURNING POINT
T. Vanek goal (OT 0:19), Sabres win chance rises from 55% to 100%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Vanek
2 (2G)
POINTS
T. Vanek
6
SHOTS
D. Brière
21:34
TOI (F)
J. Spacek
24:12
TOI (D)
M. Biron
.789 (15/19)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFFLA

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 27 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

OT 0:19
+10+50-5-10shot attemptsBUFFLA

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 62%.

OT 0:19
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFFLA
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. OT 00:19T. Vanek (10) 55% to 100%+45
  2. P3 16:39S. Montador (1) 95% to 54%-41
  3. P3 03:14P. Gaustad (1) 57% to 85%+28
  4. P2 05:25B. Campbell (2) 35% to 59%+24

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2006–07 regular season (82 games).

Wins (53)Losses (29, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 82% when yes, 39% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 84% when yes, 53% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 73% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 78% when yes, 39% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
1
2
+2
2
3
1.5
15:29
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
2
2
+2
0
1
1.5
9:06
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
2
0
2
+1
0
6
2.3
17:43
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
2
2
-2
0
0
1.1
21:34
#13 J. Novotny (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.6
15:05
#23 C. Drury (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
3
1.2
19:13
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
1
0
1
+2
0
1
0.9
13:38
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
1
1
-2
2
4
0.9
19:47
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
-1
0
0
0.7
23:16
#51 B. Campbell (D)
1
0
1
0
0
1
0.9
18:52
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.4
17:01
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
11:10
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
-3
2
0
0.0
20:21
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
0:51
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.1
10:30
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.2
24:12
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.1
15:47
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
19:29
Total
5
9
14
6
26
12.7
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#43 M. Biron194.789-1.560:19W

Team Stats

FLABUF
19Shots on Goal26
3Power Play Chances6
0%PP%17%
83%PK%100%
0PPG1
34Penalty Minutes8
20Hits20
18Blocked Shots17
10Giveaways17
2Takeaways6

Full Game Log

1ST
05:20GOAL (FLA): Gary Roberts (3), assists: Olli Jokinen
2ND
01:48GOAL (FLA): Ruslan Salei (2), assists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Auld
03:12GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (9), assists: Adam Mair
05:25GOAL (BUF): Brian Campbell (2), assists: Jochen Hecht, Daniel Brière
3RD
03:14GOAL (BUF): Paul Gaustad (1), assists: Adam Mair, Daniel Brière
04:04GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (5), assists: Chris Drury, Jiri Novotny
10:51GOAL (FLA): Joe Nieuwendyk (4), assists: Ville Peltonen, Nathan Horton
16:39GOAL (FLA): Steve Montador (1), assists: Gary Roberts, Olli Jokinen
OT
00:19GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (10), assists: Ales Kotalik, Teppo Numminen
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