vs TBL (Nov 20, 2006)vs MTL (Nov 24, 2006) ›

November 22, 2006

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

TOR 47 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs TOR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR2114
BUF2237
Shots on goal TOR 36, BUF 29W R. MillerL A. Raycroft
Summary

TOR had more shots on goal in all situations, but Buffalo won 7-4.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .889
TOR A. Raycroft .815
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 8
TOR 2 of 7
TURNING POINT
D. Brière goal (P3 14:41), Sabres win chance rises from 53% to 92%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
D. Brière
3 (2G-1A)
POINTS
C. Drury
19:30
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
29:19
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.889 (32/36)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFTOR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 19 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+8+40-4-8shot attemptsBUFTOR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 59%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFTOR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 14:41D. Brière (10) 53% to 92%+39
  2. P3 07:19D. Tucker (15) 86% to 54%-32
  3. P1 12:37J. Novotny (5) 38% to 58%+20
  4. P2 01:54D. Brière (9) 58% to 77%+19

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2006–07 regular season (82 games).

Wins (53)Losses (29, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 82% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 84% when yes, 53% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 73% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 78% when yes, 39% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#48 D. Brière (C)
2
1
3
+2
4
6
2.5
16:54
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
2
2
+2
0
2
1.5
13:27
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
2
2
+1
0
1
1.5
18:33
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
1
1
2
+3
2
2
1.4
14:06
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
1
1
2
0
0
2
1.5
18:38
#51 B. Campbell (D)
1
1
2
+3
0
3
1.7
29:19
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.9
13:50
#13 J. Novotny (C)
1
0
1
0
0
1
1.0
14:21
#23 C. Drury (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
4
1.2
19:30
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
1
1
+1
2
2
0.9
17:53
#3 M. Funk (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.6
0:25
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.7
22:51
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.3
8:57
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
-2
2
0
-0.1
8:04
#37 M. Ryan (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
9:45
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
+2
6
1
-0.2
16:51
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
+1
2
1
0.0
18:10
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.2
21:55
Total
7
12
19
18
29
15.6
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller364.8890.259:40W

Team Stats

TORBUF
36Shots on Goal29
7Power Play Chances8
29%PP%25%
75%PK%71%
2PPG2
18Penalty Minutes18
17Hits10
8Blocked Shots13
20Giveaways16
5Takeaways4

Full Game Log

1ST
02:19GOAL (TOR): Darcy Tucker (14), assists: Tomas Kaberle, Bryan McCabe
03:44GOAL (TOR): Kyle Wellwood (4), assists: Bryan McCabe, Tomas Kaberle
10:27GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (11), assists: Ales Kotalik, Teppo Numminen
12:37GOAL (BUF): Jiri Novotny (5), assists: Thomas Vanek, Paul Gaustad
2ND
01:54GOAL (BUF): Daniel Brière (9), assists: Thomas Vanek, Maxim Afinogenov
03:05GOAL (BUF): Brian Campbell (3), assists: Daniel Brière, Michael Funk
14:55GOAL (TOR): Jeff O'Neill (6), unassisted
3RD
07:19GOAL (TOR): Darcy Tucker (15), assists: Tomas Kaberle, Jeff O'Neill
14:41GOAL (BUF): Daniel Brière (10), assists: Daniel Paille, Jason Pominville
18:52GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (12), unassisted
19:12GOAL (BUF): Chris Drury (13), assists: Daniel Paille, Brian Campbell
vs TBL (Nov 20, 2006)vs MTL (Nov 24, 2006) ›