vs OTT (Dec 16, 2006)@ NSH (Dec 21, 2006) ›

December 19, 2006

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

MTL 52 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs MTL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
MTL3025
BUF1102
Shots on goal MTL 29, BUF 44W C. HuetL R. Miller
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and lost 2-5.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .828
MTL C. Huet .955
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 4
MTL 2 of 4
TURNING POINT
C. Higgins goal (P1 16:11), Sabres win chance drops from 55% to 35%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
A. Kotalik
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
T. Vanek
7
SHOTS
D. Roy
18:59
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
23:37
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.828 (24/29)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFMTL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 4 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+15+80-8-15shot attemptsBUFMTL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 57%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFMTL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 16:11C. Higgins (9) 55% to 35%-20
  2. P1 13:01A. Kovalev (9) 74% to 56%-18
  3. P2 12:06J. Spacek (5) 12% to 29%+17
  4. P1 17:33M. Lapierre (3) 35% to 18%-17

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2006–07 regular season (82 games).

Wins (53)Losses (29, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 82% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 84% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 73% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 78% when yes, 39% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
1
2
+1
2
4
1.6
14:43
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
2
2
0
0
0
1.5
23:37
#23 C. Drury (C)
0
1
1
0
2
2
0.7
18:22
#6 J. Spacek (D)
1
0
1
0
0
4
1.1
22:44
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
18:59
#13 J. Novotny (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.1
9:21
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.2
6:19
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
7
0.5
16:46
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
+1
0
2
0.5
14:59
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
15:25
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
7:02
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
0
0
0
0
5
0.4
17:35
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
4
0.5
18:24
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
18:19
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
2
0.1
16:23
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.2
20:55
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.2
12:00
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.0
21:05
Total
2
4
6
8
44
7.9
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller295.828-1.359:58L

Team Stats

MTLBUF
29Shots on Goal44
4Power Play Chances4
50%PP%0%
100%PK%50%
2PPG0
8Penalty Minutes8
5Hits14
13Blocked Shots15
7Giveaways17
2Takeaways4

Full Game Log

1ST
00:34GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (7), assists: Brian Campbell, Chris Drury
13:01GOAL (MTL): Alex Kovalev (9), assists: Andrei Markov, Sheldon Souray
16:11GOAL (MTL): Chris Higgins (9), assists: Sergei Samsonov, Mark Streit
17:33GOAL (MTL): Maxim Lapierre (3), assists: Guillaume Latendresse, Sheldon Souray
2ND
12:06GOAL (BUF): Jaroslav Spacek (5), assists: Ales Kotalik, Brian Campbell
3RD
07:52GOAL (MTL): Francis Bouillon (1), assists: Sergei Samsonov, Craig Rivet
11:37GOAL (MTL): Chris Higgins (10), assists: Michael Ryder
vs OTT (Dec 16, 2006)@ NSH (Dec 21, 2006) ›