vs MTL (Dec 19, 2006)@ STL (Dec 23, 2006) ›

December 21, 2006

Gaylord Entertainment Center | Nashville

BUF 72 NSH

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs NSH all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF2327
NSH1012
Shots on goal BUF 36, NSH 31W M. BironL C. Mason
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 7-2.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Biron .935
NSH C. Mason .808
NSH M. Leighton .800
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 7
NSH 1 of 5
TURNING POINT
A. Kotalik goal (P1 0:33), Sabres win chance rises from 47% to 65%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Pominville
3 (2G-1A)
POINTS
D. Brière
21:35
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
26:28
TOI (D)
M. Biron
.935 (29/31)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFNSH

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 1 minute, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+10+50-5-10shot attemptsBUFNSH

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 47%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFNSH
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 00:33A. Kotalik (8) 47% to 65%+18
  2. P2 05:25T. Lydman (1) 70% to 87%+17
  3. P1 05:43J. Pominville (14) 65% to 81%+16
  4. P1 08:57M. Erat (7) 83% to 68%-15

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2006–07 regular season (82 games).

Wins (53)Losses (29, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 82% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 84% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 73% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 78% when yes, 39% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
2
1
3
+2
0
4
2.4
18:09
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
2
2
+1
0
2
1.5
18:07
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
2
0
2
0
2
8
2.0
15:45
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
2
2
+1
2
3
1.8
21:35
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
2
0
2
+2
0
3
1.8
21:27
#5 T. Lydman (D)
1
1
2
+2
0
1
1.4
20:13
#13 J. Novotny (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
2
1.1
5:42
#23 C. Drury (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
3
0.8
21:17
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
1
1
+1
0
2
0.7
16:44
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
1
1
0
0
2
0.8
14:48
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
1
1
+1
2
1
1.2
18:19
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
3
1.0
11:18
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
1
1
+2
4
0
0.4
26:28
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
4
0
-0.3
2:47
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
+2
0
1
0.1
18:45
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.2
18:46
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
+2
0
0
0.0
16:45
Total
7
13
20
14
36
16.7
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#43 M. Biron312.9351.459:56W

Team Stats

BUFNSH
36Shots on Goal31
7Power Play Chances5
29%PP%20%
80%PK%71%
2PPG1
14Penalty Minutes37
6Hits14
11Blocked Shots8
11Giveaways13
10Takeaways9

Full Game Log

1ST
00:33GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (8), assists: Brian Campbell
05:43GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (14), assists: Daniel Brière, Jaroslav Spacek
08:57GOAL (NSH): Martin Erat (7), assists: David Legwand, Kimmo Timonen
2ND
05:25GOAL (BUF): Toni Lydman (1), assists: Jiri Novotny, Jason Pominville
15:18GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (15), assists: Derek Roy, Toni Lydman
17:45GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (16), assists: Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek
3RD
03:02GOAL (NSH): Jason Arnott (8), assists: Steve Sullivan, Ryan Suter
17:03GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (9), assists: Nathan Paetsch, Paul Gaustad
17:28GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (15), assists: Daniel Brière, Chris Drury
vs MTL (Dec 19, 2006)@ STL (Dec 23, 2006) ›