@ TBL (Mar 16, 2007)vs WSH (Mar 21, 2007) ›

March 18, 2007

Philips Arena | Atlanta

BUF 34 ATL

FINAL / OT

Head-to-Head vs ATL all-time
1ST2ND3RDOTT
BUF11103
ATL20114
Shots on goal BUF 38, ATL 31W K. LehtonenL R. Miller
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and lost 3-4 in overtime.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .871
ATL K. Lehtonen .921
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 5
ATL 3 of 5
TURNING POINT
K. Tkachuk goal (OT 4:22), Sabres win chance drops from 47% to 0%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
D. Roy
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
D. Brière
22:47
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
24:02
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.871 (27/31)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFATL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

OT 4:22
+11+60-6-11shot attemptsBUFATL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 54%.

OT 4:22
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFATL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. OT 04:22K. Tkachuk (26) 47% to 0%-47
  2. P3 12:25D. Roy (15) 13% to 52%+39
  3. P3 07:45A. Zhitnik (7) 47% to 18%-29
  4. P2 16:07T. Vanek (35) 26% to 53%+27

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2006–07 regular season (82 games).

Wins (53)Losses (29, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 82% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 84% when yes, 53% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 73% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 78% when yes, 39% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#9 D. Roy (C)
1
1
2
+2
0
3
1.8
17:30
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
1
2
+2
0
2
1.5
15:55
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
3
1.0
13:49
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
2
0.9
21:09
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.8
22:03
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
3
0.9
23:00
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
3
1.1
24:02
#15 D. Zubrus (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
20:22
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
4
1
-0.2
6:46
#23 C. Drury (C)
0
0
0
0
2
4
0.2
21:03
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
5
0.4
19:33
#37 M. Ryan (C)
0
0
0
0
0
5
0.5
14:57
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
6:59
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.2
22:47
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.1
20:53
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
2
1
-0.1
3:37
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.0
15:14
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
17:02
Total
3
6
9
12
38
9.0
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller314.871-0.364:20O

Team Stats

BUFATL
38Shots on Goal31
5Power Play Chances5
0%PP%60%
40%PK%100%
0PPG3
12Penalty Minutes12
12Hits20
7Blocked Shots10
6Giveaways10
8Takeaways16

Full Game Log

1ST
03:50GOAL (ATL): Ilya Kovalchuk (38), assists: Alexei Zhitnik, Marian Hossa
06:11GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (9), assists: Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek
15:36GOAL (ATL): Eric Belanger (16), assists: Andy Sutton
2ND
16:07GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (35), assists: Teppo Numminen, Dmitri Kalinin
3RD
07:45GOAL (ATL): Alexei Zhitnik (7), assists: Niclas Havelid, Keith Tkachuk
12:25GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (15), assists: Henrik Tallinder, Brian Campbell
OT
04:22GOAL (ATL): Keith Tkachuk (26), assists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Alexei Zhitnik
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