@ NYR (May 6, 2007)vs OTT (May 12, 2007) ›

May 10, 2007

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

OTT 52 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs OTT all-timeFull Round 3 series breakdown
1ST2ND3RDT
OTT2035
BUF1102
Shots on goal OTT 34, BUF 20W R. EmeryL R. Miller
Summary

OTT had more shots on goal in all situations and won 5-2.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .879
OTT R. Emery .900
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 5
OTT 2 of 6
TURNING POINT
O. Saprykin goal (P3 7:41), Sabres win chance drops from 51% to 17%
WIN DNA
0 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
M. Afinogenov
1 (1G)
POINTS
C. Drury
19:10
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
22:46
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.879 (29/33)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFOTT

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 23 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+17+90-9-17shot attemptsBUFOTT

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 52%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFOTT
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 07:41O. Saprykin (1) 51% to 17%-34
  2. P2 08:45T. Lydman (2) 27% to 51%+24
  3. P1 04:32M. Fisher (2) 52% to 34%-18
  4. P1 10:55M. Afinogenov (3) 17% to 32%+15

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to sudden-death overtime. The opening value comes from both teams' regular-season goals for and against, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

0 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2006–07 regular season (82 games).

Wins (53)Losses (29, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 82% when yes, 39% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 84% when yes, 53% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 73% when yes, 53% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 78% when yes, 39% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.8
16:42
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
1
1
+1
0
4
1.2
15:00
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
2
0.9
16:15
#5 T. Lydman (D)
1
0
1
0
0
1
1.0
21:54
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
1
1
-1
2
0
0.5
11:52
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
0
4
1
0.1
18:13
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
-3
2
1
-0.1
12:01
#15 D. Zubrus (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.4
18:22
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
0
0
-2
2
1
0.0
17:45
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
7:07
#23 C. Drury (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.2
19:10
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
+1
0
2
0.3
11:39
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
0
0
-2
0
0
0.0
15:33
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
+1
2
1
-0.1
13:03
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
17:26
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.2
20:33
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.2
15:28
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
22:46
Total
2
3
5
12
20
5.8
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller334.879-0.158:56L

Team Stats

OTTBUF
34Shots on Goal20
6Power Play Chances5
33%PP%0%
100%PK%67%
2PPG0
10Penalty Minutes12
22Hits28
11Blocked Shots19
8Giveaways19
2Takeaways7

Full Game Log

1ST
04:32GOAL (OTT): Mike Fisher (2), unassisted
07:54GOAL (OTT): Daniel Alfredsson (7), assists: Joe Corvo, Jason Spezza
10:55GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (3), assists: Thomas Vanek, Dmitri Kalinin
2ND
08:45GOAL (BUF): Toni Lydman (2), assists: Jason Pominville
3RD
07:41GOAL (OTT): Oleg Saprykin (1), assists: Dean McAmmond
15:48GOAL (OTT): Jason Spezza (6), assists: Wade Redden, Daniel Alfredsson
19:47GOAL (OTT): Dean McAmmond (3), assists: Dany Heatley
@ NYR (May 6, 2007)vs OTT (May 12, 2007) ›