@ OTT (May 16, 2007)

May 19, 2007

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

OTT 32 BUF

FINAL / OT

Head-to-Head vs OTT all-timeFull Round 3 series breakdown
1ST2ND3RDOTT
OTT02013
BUF01102
Shots on goal OTT 25, BUF 29W R. EmeryL R. Miller
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and lost 2-3 in overtime.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .880
OTT R. Emery .931
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 7
OTT 0 of 4
TURNING POINT
D. Alfredsson goal (OT 9:32), Sabres win chance drops from 51% to 0%
WIN DNA
1 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
D. Brière
2 (2A)
POINTS
J. Hecht
5
SHOTS
J. Pominville
23:58
TOI (F)
T. Lydman
31:12
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.880 (22/25)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFOTT

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

OT 9:32
+8+40-4-8shot attemptsBUFOTT

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 52%.

OT 9:32
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFOTT
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. OT 09:32D. Alfredsson (10) 51% to 0%-51
  2. P3 10:58M. Afinogenov (5) 15% to 51%+36
  3. P2 19:21J. Spezza (7) 51% to 23%-28
  4. P2 15:41D. Heatley (6) 77% to 51%-26

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to sudden-death overtime. The opening value comes from both teams' regular-season goals for and against, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

1 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2006–07 regular season (82 games).

Wins (53)Losses (29, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 82% when yes, 39% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 84% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 73% when yes, 53% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 78% when yes, 39% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
2
2
-1
0
4
1.7
22:17
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
1
1
0
0
2
0.7
18:46
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
1
1
-1
0
0
0.7
23:58
#55 J. Hecht (C)
1
0
1
-2
2
5
1.1
20:00
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
2
1.0
19:46
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
0
4
2
0.0
20:25
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.4
12:59
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.4
19:57
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
8:55
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
10:12
#23 C. Drury (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.2
17:58
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
16:39
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.3
31:12
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
9:25
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.2
30:37
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.2
24:13
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
2:15
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
-2
2
4
0.2
29:42
Total
2
4
6
8
29
7.5
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller253.8800.069:32L

Team Stats

OTTBUF
25Shots on Goal29
4Power Play Chances7
0%PP%14%
86%PK%100%
0PPG1
14Penalty Minutes8
31Hits28
7Blocked Shots21
2Giveaways9
2Takeaways2

Full Game Log

2ND
04:30GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (4), assists: Jason Pominville, Daniel Brière
15:41GOAL (OTT): Dany Heatley (6), assists: Jason Spezza, Wade Redden
19:21GOAL (OTT): Jason Spezza (7), assists: Daniel Alfredsson, Dany Heatley
3RD
10:58GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (5), assists: Daniel Brière, Thomas Vanek
OT
09:32GOAL (OTT): Daniel Alfredsson (10), assists: Dany Heatley, Andrej Meszaros
@ OTT (May 16, 2007)