@ NYI (Oct 6, 2007)vs WSH (Oct 13, 2007) ›

October 11, 2007

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

ATL 06 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs ATL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
ATL0000
BUF3216
Shots on goal ATL 20, BUF 28W R. MillerL K. Lehtonen
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 6-0.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller 1.000
ATL J. Hedberg .875
ATL K. Lehtonen .750
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 3 of 8
ATL 0 of 8
TURNING POINT
A. Kotalik goal (P1 3:00), Sabres win chance rises from 55% to 73%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Connolly
3 (1G-2A)
POINTS
D. Roy
4
SHOTS
D. Roy
22:24
TOI (F)
H. Tallinder
21:49
TOI (D)
R. Miller
1.000 (20/20)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFATL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 3 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+12+60-6-12shot attemptsBUFATL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 55%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFATL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 03:00A. Kotalik (1) 55% to 73%+18
  2. P1 11:01T. Connolly (1) 75% to 87%+12
  3. P1 12:07B. Campbell (1) 88% to 95%+7
  4. P1 01:12Delaying game puck over glass on Kari Lehtonen, 2 min 55% to 58%+3

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2007–08 regular season (82 games).

Wins (39)Losses (43, 12 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 76% when yes, 23% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 82% when yes, 35% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 31% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 56% when yes, 35% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#19 T. Connolly (C)
1
2
3
0
2
1
2.4
16:48
#51 B. Campbell (D)
1
2
3
+2
0
2
2.2
20:06
#9 D. Roy (C)
1
1
2
+2
0
4
1.8
22:24
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
1
2
0
0
3
1.5
10:39
#20 D. Paille (LW)
1
1
2
+2
2
3
1.7
8:37
#37 M. Ryan (C)
0
2
2
+2
0
1
1.3
11:39
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
1
1
+1
4
0
0.6
7:00
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
1
0.8
16:28
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
1
1
+2
0
1
0.9
19:37
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
5
2
0.2
11:52
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
15:30
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
9
2
0.0
15:03
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
13:28
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
4
3
0.1
17:08
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.0
20:38
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.1
21:49
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.2
13:10
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
+1
2
2
0.1
20:15
Total
6
11
17
32
28
14.0
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller2001.0002.059:46W

Team Stats

ATLBUF
20Shots on Goal28
8Power Play Chances8
0%PP%38%
63%PK%100%
0PPG3
32Penalty Minutes32
19Hits18
12Blocked Shots13
4Giveaways9
2Takeaways5

Full Game Log

1ST
03:00GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (1), assists: Tim Connolly, Brian Campbell
11:01GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (1), assists: Brian Campbell, Ales Kotalik
12:07GOAL (BUF): Brian Campbell (1), assists: Tim Connolly, Jaroslav Spacek
2ND
12:31GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (1), assists: Derek Roy
19:57GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (2), assists: Michael Ryan, Daniel Paille
3RD
19:33GOAL (BUF): Daniel Paille (1), assists: Adam Mair, Michael Ryan
@ NYI (Oct 6, 2007)vs WSH (Oct 13, 2007) ›