vs ATL (Oct 11, 2007)vs TOR (Oct 15, 2007) ›

October 13, 2007

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

WSH 37 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs WSH all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
WSH1023
BUF0437
Shots on goal WSH 26, BUF 53W R. MillerL B. Johnson
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 7-3.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .885
WSH B. Johnson .868
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 7
WSH 1 of 4
TURNING POINT
J. Spacek goal (P2 14:51), Sabres win chance rises from 26% to 52%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
B. Campbell
4 (4A)
POINTS
D. Roy
21:05
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
21:53
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.885 (23/26)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFWSH

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 12 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+29+150-15-29shot attemptsBUFWSH

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 53%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFWSH
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 14:51J. Spacek (3) 26% to 52%+26
  2. P2 15:02M. Afinogenov (1) 52% to 78%+26
  3. P1 11:24M. Nylander (2) 53% to 33%-20
  4. P2 17:29J. Pominville (2) 79% to 94%+15

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Shot Map

Every shot attempt, to scale.

Replay
P3 11:19
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2007–08 regular season (82 games).

Wins (39)Losses (43, 12 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 76% when yes, 23% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 82% when yes, 35% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 31% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 56% when yes, 35% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
4
4
+1
0
6
3.2
21:53
#9 D. Roy (C)
2
0
2
+3
0
3
1.8
21:05
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
2
2
0
2
1
1.4
14:53
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
2
2
+3
0
3
2.0
18:11
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
1
1
2
+3
2
7
1.8
20:20
#6 J. Spacek (D)
2
0
2
+1
0
4
1.8
21:26
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
1
1
+2
0
5
1.1
19:57
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
1
1
0
0
0
0.7
6:01
#22 A. Mair (C)
1
0
1
0
2
2
0.9
6:15
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
3
1.2
17:30
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
1
1
0
0
4
1.0
15:30
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
1
1
+2
2
3
0.7
16:30
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
+2
0
2
0.8
18:13
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.2
12:27
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
15:29
#37 M. Ryan (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
10:51
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
16:27
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
0
2
3
0.1
19:26
Total
7
14
21
10
53
18.9
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller263.8850.159:40W

Team Stats

WSHBUF
26Shots on Goal53
4Power Play Chances7
25%PP%29%
71%PK%75%
1PPG2
16Penalty Minutes10
27Hits20
12Blocked Shots9
7Giveaways8
1Takeaways3

Full Game Log

1ST
11:24GOAL (WSH): Michael Nylander (2), assists: Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green
2ND
14:51GOAL (BUF): Jaroslav Spacek (3), assists: Brian Campbell, Ales Kotalik
15:02GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (1), assists: Thomas Vanek, Toni Lydman
17:29GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (2), assists: Jochen Hecht, Henrik Tallinder
19:23GOAL (BUF): Adam Mair (1), assists: Daniel Paille, Brian Campbell
3RD
07:29GOAL (WSH): Mike Green (1), assists: Brooks Laich
09:17GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (3), assists: Brian Campbell, Maxim Afinogenov
11:19GOAL (WSH): Alex Ovechkin (3), assists: Michael Nylander, Tom Poti
12:09GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (4), assists: Thomas Vanek, Brian Campbell
16:36GOAL (BUF): Jaroslav Spacek (4), assists: Ales Kotalik, Tim Connolly
vs ATL (Oct 11, 2007)vs TOR (Oct 15, 2007) ›