@ NYI (Dec 19, 2007)@ PHI (Dec 22, 2007) ›

December 21, 2007

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

PHI 23 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs PHI all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
PHI0202
BUF1023
Shots on goal PHI 22, BUF 35W R. MillerL M. Biron
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 3-2.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .909
PHI M. Biron .914
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 5
PHI 1 of 7
TURNING POINT
J. Hecht goal (P3 17:09), Sabres win chance rises from 51% to 95%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Spacek
2 (2A)
POINTS
D. Roy
23:01
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
28:00
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.909 (20/22)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFPHI

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 31 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+14+70-7-14shot attemptsBUFPHI

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 54%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFPHI
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 17:09J. Hecht (12) 51% to 95%+44
  2. P3 04:30A. Kotalik (10) 24% to 52%+28
  3. P2 02:58J. Lupul (13) 53% to 31%-22
  4. P2 02:13J. Carter (10) 74% to 53%-21

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2007–08 regular season (82 games).

Wins (39)Losses (43, 12 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 76% when yes, 23% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 82% when yes, 35% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 31% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 56% when yes, 35% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
2
2
0
4
2
1.2
25:46
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
2
2
0
0
1
1.5
28:00
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
4
1.1
15:37
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
1
1
+1
0
2
1.0
9:30
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
3
1.0
14:20
#55 J. Hecht (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
4
1.4
17:13
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.6
22:34
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
+1
4
2
0.0
23:01
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
4:11
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
0
2
2
0.2
14:59
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
20:29
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.3
20:01
#37 M. Ryan (C)
0
0
0
0
2
3
0.2
10:39
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
2
0.2
14:57
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
5
0
0.0
0:20
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+1
4
3
0.1
22:25
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
8:08
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
10:02
Total
3
6
9
23
35
9.3
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller222.9090.559:56W

Team Stats

PHIBUF
22Shots on Goal35
7Power Play Chances5
14%PP%20%
80%PK%86%
1PPG1
21Penalty Minutes23
17Hits19
12Blocked Shots17
4Giveaways8
1Takeaways1

Full Game Log

1ST
17:55GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (8), assists: Brian Campbell, Jaroslav Spacek
2ND
02:13GOAL (PHI): Jeff Carter (10), assists: Scott Hartnell
02:58GOAL (PHI): Joffrey Lupul (13), assists: Denis Tolpeko, Randy Jones
3RD
04:30GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (10), assists: Jaroslav Spacek, Brian Campbell
17:09GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (12), assists: Daniel Paille, Henrik Tallinder
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