@ CAR (Nov 7, 2002)vs BOS (Nov 12, 2002) ›

November 9, 2002

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

ATL 64 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs ATL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
ATL2226
BUF2114
Shots on goal ATL 20, BUF 28W P. NurminenL M. Noronen
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and lost 4-6.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Noronen .857
Buffalo M. Biron .667
ATL P. Nurminen .857
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 4
ATL 0 of 5
TURNING POINT
C. Herperger goal (P2 12:24), Sabres win chance drops from 56% to 29%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
S. Barnes
3 (3A)
POINTS
S. Barnes
5
SHOTS
J. Hecht
21:24
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
20:24
TOI (D)
M. Biron
.667 (8/12)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFATL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 20 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+9+50-5-9shot attemptsBUFATL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 58%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFATL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 12:24C. Herperger (1) 56% to 29%-27
  2. P2 04:33D. Heatley (4) 78% to 56%-22
  3. P2 03:59J. Dumont (2) 56% to 78%+22
  4. P1 19:44P. Rheaume (1) 80% to 60%-20

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2002–03 regular season (82 games).

Wins (27)Losses (45, 8 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 72% when yes, 19% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 87% when yes, 25% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 51% when yes, 24% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 45% when yes, 29% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#41 S. Barnes (C)
0
3
3
0
2
5
2.0
20:48
#71 J. Hecht (C)
1
1
2
0
2
3
1.5
21:24
#77 C. Gratton (C)
1
1
2
-1
0
4
1.9
18:02
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
2
0.9
14:29
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
3
1.1
16:44
#18 T. Connolly (C)
0
1
1
-4
0
3
0.8
17:25
#37 C. Brown (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.6
16:58
#4 R. Warrener (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.8
19:24
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
8:24
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
-4
2
0
-0.1
15:18
#25 V. Varada (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.2
15:58
#26 E. Boulton (LW)
0
0
0
0
5
2
0.3
4:58
#32 R. Ray (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.0
4:27
#3 J. Patrick (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
17:55
#5 J. Woolley (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
1
-0.1
18:33
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
-3
2
0
-0.1
20:02
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
20:24
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
19:42
Total
4
8
12
17
28
9.8
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#43 M. Biron124.667-2.232:35
#35 M. Noronen71.857-0.126:14L

Team Stats

ATLBUF
20Shots on Goal28
5Power Play Chances4
0%PP%25%
75%PK%100%
0PPG1
15Penalty Minutes17
1Hits3

Full Game Log

1ST
08:05GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (5), assists: Rhett Warrener, Stu Barnes
11:19GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (2), assists: Chris Gratton, Curtis Brown
15:47GOAL (ATL): Ilya Kovalchuk (8), assists: Frantisek Kaberle, Patrik Stefan
19:44GOAL (ATL): Pascal Rheaume (1), assists: Per Svartvadet
2ND
03:59GOAL (BUF): J-P Dumont (2), assists: Jochen Hecht, Stu Barnes
04:33GOAL (ATL): Dany Heatley (4), unassisted
12:24GOAL (ATL): Chris Herperger (1), assists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Tony Hrkac
3RD
13:28GOAL (ATL): Pascal Rheaume (2), unassisted
18:13GOAL (ATL): Dany Heatley (5), assists: Tony Hrkac
19:18GOAL (BUF): Chris Gratton (4), assists: Stu Barnes, Tim Connolly
@ CAR (Nov 7, 2002)vs BOS (Nov 12, 2002) ›