vs PIT (Nov 29, 2002)vs ANA (Dec 4, 2002) ›

November 30, 2002

Air Canada Centre | Toronto

BUF 13 TOR

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs TOR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF1001
TOR1113
Shots on goal BUF 20, TOR 26W E. BelfourL M. Biron
Summary

TOR had more shots on goal in all situations and won 3-1.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Biron .885
TOR E. Belfour .950
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 3
TOR 1 of 4
TURNING POINT
C. Brown goal (P1 10:49), Sabres win chance rises from 22% to 41%
WIN DNA
1 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
C. Brown
1 (1G)
POINTS
C. Brown
4
SHOTS
M. Satan
19:00
TOI (F)
R. Warrener
22:24
TOI (D)
M. Biron
.885 (23/26)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFTOR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 17 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+7+40-4-7shot attemptsBUFTOR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 40%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFTOR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 10:49C. Brown (3) 22% to 41%+19
  2. P2 02:43M. Sundin (10) 39% to 21%-18
  3. P1 05:14R. Svehla (3) 40% to 23%-17
  4. P3 06:58A. Mogilny (12) 13% to 2%-11

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

1 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2002–03 regular season (82 games).

Wins (27)Losses (45, 8 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 72% when yes, 19% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 87% when yes, 25% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 51% when yes, 24% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 45% when yes, 29% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#37 C. Brown (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
4
1.2
15:22
#81 M. Satan (RW)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.7
19:00
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
1
-0.1
13:31
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
0
0
0
-2
0
2
0.2
15:59
#18 T. Connolly (C)
0
0
0
-2
2
0
-0.1
16:38
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
4
0
-0.1
8:37
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
13:57
#25 V. Varada (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.2
18:03
#32 R. Ray (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
5:31
#41 S. Barnes (C)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.2
18:39
#71 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.2
17:39
#77 C. Gratton (C)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.1
13:46
#3 J. Patrick (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
18:23
#4 R. Warrener (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
22:24
#8 R. Fitzpatrick (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
20:16
#21 R. Hecl (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
13:47
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
20:38
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
22:01
Total
1
1
2
8
20
2.8
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#43 M. Biron263.8850.159:19L

Team Stats

BUFTOR
20Shots on Goal26
3Power Play Chances4
0%PP%25%
75%PK%100%
0PPG1
8Penalty Minutes6
1Hits2

Full Game Log

1ST
05:14GOAL (TOR): Robert Svehla (3), assists: Alexander Mogilny, Paul Healey
10:49GOAL (BUF): Curtis Brown (3), assists: Miroslav Satan
2ND
02:43GOAL (TOR): Mats Sundin (10), assists: Alexander Mogilny, Mikael Renberg
3RD
06:58GOAL (TOR): Alexander Mogilny (12), assists: Nik Antropov, Paul Healey
vs PIT (Nov 29, 2002)vs ANA (Dec 4, 2002) ›