@ PHI (Jan 7, 2003)@ MTL (Jan 11, 2003) ›

January 10, 2003

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

BOS 24 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs BOS all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BOS1012
BUF0044
Shots on goal BOS 23, BUF 30W R. MillerL S. Shields
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 4-2.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .913
BOS S. Shields .897
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 2
BOS 0 of 1
TURNING POINT
A. Kotalik goal (P3 18:47), Sabres win chance rises from 48% to 98%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
A. Kotalik
2 (2G)
POINTS
M. Satan
21:32
TOI (F)
A. Zhitnik
26:31
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.913 (21/23)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFBOS

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 29 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+7+40-4-7shot attemptsBUFBOS

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 45%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFBOS
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 18:47A. Kotalik (12) 48% to 98%+50
  2. P3 08:07A. Kotalik (11) 14% to 47%+33
  3. P1 18:49B. Rolston (15) 45% to 25%-20
  4. P3 00:31J. Stumpel (9) 18% to 5%-13

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2002–03 regular season (82 games).

Wins (27)Losses (45, 8 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 72% when yes, 19% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 87% when yes, 25% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 51% when yes, 24% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 45% when yes, 29% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
2
0
2
+1
0
4
1.8
17:35
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
0
2
2
+1
0
0
1.5
18:06
#41 S. Barnes (C)
0
2
2
+1
0
0
1.1
17:57
#18 T. Connolly (C)
1
0
1
0
0
3
1.0
15:03
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.8
9:05
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
1
1
+1
0
3
0.8
16:42
#37 C. Brown (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.8
16:24
#81 M. Satan (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
4
1.1
21:32
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
+3
0
1
0.6
17:44
#29 J. Kristek (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.3
15:53
#32 R. Ray (RW)
0
0
0
0
19
1
-0.2
4:14
#55 D. Hamel (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
12:14
#77 C. Gratton (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
17:05
#3 J. Patrick (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
17:10
#4 R. Warrener (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
16:35
#44 A. Zhitnik (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.0
26:31
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.2
21:12
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
0
2
2
0.2
17:16
Total
4
8
12
21
30
10.2
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller232.9130.659:42W

Team Stats

BOSBUF
23Shots on Goal30
1Power Play Chances2
0%PP%0%
100%PK%100%
0PPG0
23Penalty Minutes21
2Hits1

Full Game Log

1ST
18:49GOAL (BOS): Brian Rolston (15), assists: P.J. Axelsson, Hal Gill
3RD
00:31GOAL (BOS): Jozef Stumpel (9), assists: Andy Hilbert, Glen Murray
01:45GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (5), assists: Adam Mair, Henrik Tallinder
08:07GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (11), assists: J-P Dumont, Stu Barnes
18:47GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (12), assists: J-P Dumont, Stu Barnes
19:58GOAL (BUF): Miroslav Satan (16), assists: Curtis Brown, Taylor Pyatt
@ PHI (Jan 7, 2003)@ MTL (Jan 11, 2003) ›