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October 23, 2006

Centre Bell | Montreal

BUF 41 MTL

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs MTL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF1214
MTL0011
Shots on goal BUF 26, MTL 27W R. MillerL C. Huet
Summary

Shots on goal were even in all situations; Buffalo won 4-1.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .963
MTL C. Huet .880
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 6
MTL 0 of 4
TURNING POINT
J. Novotny goal (P1 9:42), Sabres win chance rises from 50% to 69%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
C. Drury
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
D. Brière
20:45
TOI (F)
T. Numminen
22:49
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.963 (26/27)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFMTL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 10 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+6+30-3-6shot attemptsBUFMTL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 51%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFMTL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 09:42J. Novotny (3) 50% to 69%+19
  2. P2 09:10C. Drury (10) 71% to 88%+17
  3. P2 11:12J. Pominville (5) 90% to 97%+7
  4. P2 08:29Hooking on Brian Campbell, 2 min 74% to 70%-4

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2006–07 regular season (82 games).

Wins (53)Losses (29, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 82% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 84% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 73% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 78% when yes, 39% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#23 C. Drury (C)
1
1
2
+2
0
2
1.7
18:26
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
2
2
+1
0
0
1.3
22:49
#13 J. Novotny (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
1
1.0
12:54
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
0
1
+1
2
2
0.9
17:02
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
1
0
1
+2
2
3
1.0
12:17
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
3
1.1
20:45
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
1
1
+2
0
2
0.8
19:53
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.8
17:57
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
19:29
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.3
11:08
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
7:15
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
11:23
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.4
17:22
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.0
5:20
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+2
0
0
0.1
20:11
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.3
19:56
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+2
2
0
-0.1
19:56
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
0
2
2
0.1
18:01
Total
4
6
10
8
26
9.9
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller271.9631.959:52W

Team Stats

BUFMTL
26Shots on Goal27
6Power Play Chances4
0%PP%0%
100%PK%100%
0PPG0
8Penalty Minutes12
13Hits21
21Blocked Shots9
19Giveaways12
18Takeaways22

Full Game Log

1ST
09:42GOAL (BUF): Jiri Novotny (3), assists: Chris Drury, Teppo Numminen
2ND
09:10GOAL (BUF): Chris Drury (10), unassisted
11:12GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (5), assists: Daniel Brière, Jochen Hecht
3RD
09:06GOAL (MTL): Mike Johnson (3), assists: Radek Bonk
19:41GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (6), assists: Dmitri Kalinin, Teppo Numminen
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