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March 15, 2007

BankAtlantic Center | Sunrise

BUF 53 FLA

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs FLA all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF0325
FLA1113
Shots on goal BUF 20, FLA 45W T. ConklinL E. Belfour
Summary

FLA had more shots on goal in all situations, but Buffalo won 5-3.

IN NET
Buffalo T. Conklin .933
FLA E. Belfour .750
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 3
FLA 0 of 4
TURNING POINT
C. Drury goal (P3 9:50), Sabres win chance rises from 53% to 87%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
B. Campbell
3 (3A)
POINTS
D. Roy
4
SHOTS
J. Hecht
19:54
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
28:23
TOI (D)
T. Conklin
.933 (42/45)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFFLA

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+28+140-14-28shot attemptsBUFFLA

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 56%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFFLA
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 09:50C. Drury (35) 53% to 87%+34
  2. P3 02:45N. Horton (27) 82% to 53%-29
  3. P2 09:35D. Zubrus (22) 30% to 54%+24
  4. P2 12:42D. Stafford (7) 54% to 78%+24

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2006–07 regular season (82 games).

Wins (53)Losses (29, 7 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 82% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 84% when yes, 53% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 73% when yes, 53% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 78% when yes, 39% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
3
3
+3
0
0
2.2
28:23
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
2
0
2
+2
2
3
1.6
12:24
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
2
2
+2
0
1
1.3
18:09
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
+2
0
4
0.9
15:20
#15 D. Zubrus (C)
1
0
1
+1
2
1
0.7
17:35
#23 C. Drury (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
1
0.9
16:52
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
1
1
+2
0
1
0.6
13:47
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
1
0
1
-1
0
3
1.0
16:17
#48 D. Brière (C)
0
1
1
-2
2
3
0.6
17:26
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
1
1
-2
0
3
1.0
19:54
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
0
2
0
0.7
25:47
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.0
10:16
#37 M. Ryan (C)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.1
16:11
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.0
10:02
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
4:39
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
7:48
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.1
20:02
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
0
2
0
-0.1
19:18
Total
5
10
15
10
20
11.5
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#35 T. Conklin453.9332.060:00W

Team Stats

BUFFLA
20Shots on Goal45
3Power Play Chances4
0%PP%0%
100%PK%100%
0PPG0
10Penalty Minutes8
16Hits23
16Blocked Shots8
4Giveaways8
6Takeaways6

Full Game Log

1ST
13:16GOAL (FLA): Stephen Weiss (18), assists: Martin Gelinas, Jay Bouwmeester
2ND
00:32GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (29), assists: Jochen Hecht, Daniel Brière
02:49GOAL (FLA): Nathan Horton (26), assists: Stephen Weiss, Martin Gelinas
09:35GOAL (BUF): Dainius Zubrus (22), assists: Henrik Tallinder, Derek Roy
12:42GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (7), assists: Brian Campbell, Thomas Vanek
3RD
02:45GOAL (FLA): Nathan Horton (27), assists: Mike Van Ryn, Stephen Weiss
09:50GOAL (BUF): Chris Drury (35), assists: Brian Campbell, Nathan Paetsch
15:17GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (8), assists: Brian Campbell, Nathan Paetsch
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