@ WSH (Nov 26, 2007)vs CAR (Dec 1, 2007) ›

November 28, 2007

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

STL 43 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs STL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
STL0134
BUF1113
Shots on goal STL 32, BUF 23W M. LegaceL R. Miller
Summary

STL had more shots on goal in all situations and won 4-3.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .875
STL M. Legace .870
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 2
STL 0 of 1
TURNING POINT
B. Boyes goal (P3 19:02), Sabres win chance drops from 51% to 2%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Connolly
2 (2A)
POINTS
T. Connolly
19:43
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
24:13
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.875 (28/32)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFSTL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+12+60-6-12shot attemptsBUFSTL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 53%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFSTL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 19:02B. Boyes (14) 51% to 2%-49
  2. P3 11:02A. Sekera (1) 14% to 51%+37
  3. P3 06:19M. Johnson (1) 52% to 18%-34
  4. P3 03:45P. Kariya (7) 82% to 52%-30

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2007–08 regular season (82 games).

Wins (39)Losses (43, 12 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 76% when yes, 23% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 82% when yes, 35% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 31% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 56% when yes, 35% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
2
2
+1
0
3
1.5
19:43
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
0
1
-1
0
2
0.9
13:59
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
2
0.9
14:15
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
1
1
-1
0
0
0.8
12:55
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.8
18:25
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.8
23:12
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
1
1
-1
0
1
0.8
22:29
#44 A. Sekera (D)
1
0
1
-1
0
2
1.1
21:14
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
19:23
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.1
11:54
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
15:14
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
17:53
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
-2
0
0
0.1
9:29
#37 M. Ryan (C)
0
0
0
-1
2
1
0.3
9:05
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
3
0.1
15:07
#4 N. Pratt (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
15:36
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
12:35
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
24:13
Total
3
6
9
4
23
8.7
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller324.875-0.259:19L

Team Stats

STLBUF
32Shots on Goal23
1Power Play Chances2
0%PP%50%
50%PK%100%
0PPG1
6Penalty Minutes4
15Hits23
11Blocked Shots20
5Giveaways10
2Takeaways1

Full Game Log

1ST
18:39GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (7), assists: Clarke MacArthur, Toni Lydman
2ND
12:28GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (5), assists: Jaroslav Spacek, Tim Connolly
15:10GOAL (STL): Martin Rucinsky (3), assists: Keith Tkachuk, Mike Johnson
3RD
03:45GOAL (STL): Paul Kariya (7), assists: Keith Tkachuk, Brad Boyes
06:19GOAL (STL): Mike Johnson (1), assists: Bryce Salvador
11:02GOAL (BUF): Andrej Sekera (1), assists: Tim Connolly, Jochen Hecht
19:02GOAL (STL): Brad Boyes (14), assists: Paul Kariya, Bryce Salvador
@ WSH (Nov 26, 2007)vs CAR (Dec 1, 2007) ›