vs BOS (Nov 12, 2002)@ OTT (Nov 16, 2002) ›

November 15, 2002

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

TOR 32 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs TOR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
TOR0303
BUF1012
Shots on goal TOR 28, BUF 37W E. BelfourL M. Biron
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and lost 2-3.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Biron .893
TOR E. Belfour .946
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 7
TOR 2 of 6
TURNING POINT
M. Renberg goal (P2 15:24), Sabres win chance drops from 77% to 52%
WIN DNA
1 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
D. Kalinin
2 (2A)
POINTS
M. Satan
28:40
TOI (F)
A. Zhitnik
25:19
TOI (D)
M. Biron
.893 (25/28)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFTOR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 17 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+10+50-5-10shot attemptsBUFTOR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 52%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFTOR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 15:24M. Renberg (5) 77% to 52%-25
  2. P2 17:00A. Mogilny (9) 49% to 23%-26
  3. P1 15:41S. Barnes (4) 52% to 73%+21
  4. P2 19:17A. Mogilny (10) 25% to 8%-17

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

1 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2002–03 regular season (82 games).

Wins (27)Losses (45, 8 in overtime)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 72% when yes, 19% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 87% when yes, 25% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 51% when yes, 24% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 45% when yes, 29% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
2
2
+1
0
3
1.3
24:51
#17 J. Dumont (RW)
0
1
1
+1
0
4
1.2
16:45
#18 T. Connolly (C)
1
0
1
0
2
4
0.9
18:15
#41 S. Barnes (C)
1
0
1
0
0
3
1.0
21:53
#81 M. Satan (RW)
0
1
1
0
0
4
1.0
28:40
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
8:26
#24 T. Pyatt (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
9:46
#25 V. Varada (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.4
11:59
#26 E. Boulton (LW)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.1
4:16
#32 R. Ray (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
3:43
#37 C. Brown (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
14:03
#71 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.4
16:56
#77 C. Gratton (C)
0
0
0
+1
0
7
0.5
19:44
#3 J. Patrick (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
17:17
#4 R. Warrener (D)
0
0
0
0
8
1
-0.5
14:12
#44 A. Zhitnik (D)
0
0
0
+2
2
2
0.0
25:19
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
15:57
#74 J. McKee (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
16:32
Total
2
4
6
14
37
6.6
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#43 M. Biron283.8930.359:24L

Team Stats

TORBUF
28Shots on Goal37
6Power Play Chances7
33%PP%0%
100%PK%67%
2PPG0
16Penalty Minutes14
1Hits3

Full Game Log

1ST
15:41GOAL (BUF): Stu Barnes (4), assists: Miroslav Satan, Dmitri Kalinin
2ND
15:24GOAL (TOR): Mikael Renberg (5), assists: Jonas Hoglund, Jyrki Lumme
17:00GOAL (TOR): Alexander Mogilny (9), assists: Bryan McCabe, Mats Sundin
19:17GOAL (TOR): Alexander Mogilny (10), assists: Robert Svehla
3RD
08:40GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (4), assists: J-P Dumont, Dmitri Kalinin
vs BOS (Nov 12, 2002)@ OTT (Nov 16, 2002) ›