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October 24, 2007

RBC Center | Raleigh

BUF 26 CAR

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF1102
CAR1146
Shots on goal BUF 21, CAR 43W C. WardL R. Miller
Summary

CAR had more shots on goal in all situations and won 6-2.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .860
CAR C. Ward .905
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 5
CAR 1 of 10
TURNING POINT
E. Staal goal (P3 5:48), Sabres win chance drops from 47% to 15%
WIN DNA
0 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Pominville
2 (2G)
POINTS
J. Hecht
4
SHOTS
J. Hecht
21:27
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
27:44
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.860 (37/43)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+23+120-12-23shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 44%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 05:48E. Staal (7) 47% to 15%-32
  2. P2 15:22J. Pominville (5) 27% to 49%+22
  3. P2 03:15R. Whitney (4) 45% to 23%-22
  4. P1 02:52J. Pominville (4) 26% to 44%+18

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

0 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2007–08 regular season (82 games).

Wins (39)Losses (43, 12 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 76% when yes, 23% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 82% when yes, 35% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 31% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 56% when yes, 35% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
2
2
+1
0
3
1.7
20:41
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
2
0
2
+1
0
2
1.7
20:10
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
-2
4
1
0.7
20:06
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
1
1
0
0
4
0.9
21:27
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
14:48
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.2
9:35
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
-4
2
0
-0.1
10:16
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.4
7:42
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
-3
4
1
-0.2
12:33
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
12:03
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
17:09
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
4
0
-0.1
2:10
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
-4
0
0
0.2
22:46
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
-4
4
0
-0.2
24:05
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
19:04
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
0
-0.1
13:45
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
7:27
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.1
27:44
Total
2
4
6
20
21
5.6
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller436.860-0.859:47L

Team Stats

BUFCAR
21Shots on Goal43
5Power Play Chances10
20%PP%10%
90%PK%80%
1PPG1
20Penalty Minutes10
18Hits23
15Blocked Shots13
5Giveaways5
11Takeaways13

Full Game Log

1ST
00:38GOAL (CAR): Rod Brind'Amour (2), assists: Justin Williams, Niclas Wallin
02:52GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (4), assists: Tim Connolly, Jochen Hecht
2ND
03:15GOAL (CAR): Ray Whitney (4), assists: Rod Brind'Amour, Justin Williams
15:22GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (5), assists: Derek Roy, Tim Connolly
3RD
05:48GOAL (CAR): Eric Staal (7), assists: Bret Hedican, Keith Aucoin
07:40GOAL (CAR): Jeff Hamilton (3), assists: Eric Staal, Matt Cullen
10:44GOAL (CAR): Cory Stillman (4), assists: Mike Commodore, Bret Hedican
17:41GOAL (CAR): Bret Hedican (2), assists: Cory Stillman, Eric Staal
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