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January 29, 2008

St. Pete Times Forum | Tampa

BUF 42 TBL

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs TBL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF2204
TBL0112
Shots on goal BUF 26, TBL 25W R. MillerL J. Holmqvist
Summary

Shots on goal were even in all situations; Buffalo won 4-2.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .920
TBL J. Holmqvist .846
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 3
TBL 2 of 4
TURNING POINT
C. MacArthur goal (P1 4:58), Sabres win chance rises from 52% to 71%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Pominville
3 (1G-2A)
POINTS
D. Roy
5
SHOTS
J. Hecht
22:15
TOI (F)
B. Campbell
24:55
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.920 (23/25)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFTBL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 5 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+7+40-4-7shot attemptsBUFTBL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 52%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFTBL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 04:58C. MacArthur (6) 52% to 71%+19
  2. P1 12:14J. Pominville (12) 72% to 86%+14
  3. P2 10:00D. Stafford (13) 91% to 97%+6
  4. P1 08:37High sticking on Vinny Prospal, 2 min 71% to 74%+3

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2007–08 regular season (82 games).

Wins (39)Losses (43, 12 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 76% when yes, 23% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 82% when yes, 35% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 31% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 56% when yes, 35% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
1
2
3
+3
0
5
2.5
21:32
#9 D. Roy (C)
1
1
2
+2
0
5
1.8
20:38
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
1
1
2
+2
4
1
1.3
16:36
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
2
2
+3
0
3
1.5
22:15
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
2
2
+3
0
0
1.2
20:43
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
1
0.8
13:52
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
3
0.1
13:43
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
14:38
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
7:32
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
+2
0
2
0.2
15:26
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
14:04
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.0
7:51
#37 M. Ryan (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.2
9:00
#4 N. Pratt (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
12:07
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.2
24:20
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+2
2
0
-0.1
19:27
#45 D. Kalinin (D)
0
0
0
+1
2
4
0.2
15:48
#51 B. Campbell (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.3
24:55
Total
4
8
12
12
26
10.3
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller252.9200.859:22W

Team Stats

BUFTBL
26Shots on Goal25
3Power Play Chances4
0%PP%50%
50%PK%100%
0PPG2
12Penalty Minutes8
14Hits25
12Blocked Shots9
6Giveaways10
4Takeaways4

Full Game Log

1ST
04:58GOAL (BUF): Clarke MacArthur (6), assists: Jason Pominville, Jochen Hecht
12:14GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (12), assists: Clarke MacArthur, Toni Lydman
2ND
10:00GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (13), assists: Derek Roy, Toni Lydman
16:45GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (19), assists: Jochen Hecht, Jason Pominville
19:22GOAL (TBL): Brad Richards (15), assists: Dan Boyle, Vinny Prospal
3RD
12:22GOAL (TBL): Vinny Prospal (20), assists: Dan Boyle, Vincent Lecavalier
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