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March 14, 2008

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

CAR 17 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
CAR0011
BUF4217
Shots on goal CAR 28, BUF 31W R. MillerL C. Ward
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 7-1.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .964
CAR C. Ward .429
CAR J. Grahame .875
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 10
CAR 0 of 5
TURNING POINT
D. Paille goal (P1 4:44), Sabres win chance rises from 55% to 73%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
D. Roy
3 (2G-1A)
POINTS
D. Roy
8
SHOTS
D. Roy
25:46
TOI (F)
T. Lydman
25:39
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.964 (27/28)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 5 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+6+30-3-6shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 55%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 04:44D. Paille (17) 55% to 73%+18
  2. P1 05:06A. Mair (5) 73% to 86%+13
  3. P1 10:51D. Roy (28) 87% to 94%+7
  4. P1 13:46P. Gaustad (9) 95% to 98%+3

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2007–08 regular season (82 games).

Wins (39)Losses (43, 12 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 76% when yes, 23% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 82% when yes, 35% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 68% when yes, 31% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 56% when yes, 35% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#9 D. Roy (C)
2
1
3
+3
0
8
2.8
25:46
#22 A. Mair (C)
1
2
3
+3
5
1
2.1
10:21
#20 D. Paille (LW)
1
1
2
+2
0
3
1.8
13:00
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
2
2
+2
2
3
1.8
14:52
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
2
2
+2
2
3
1.5
21:08
#56 S. Bernier (RW)
0
2
2
+1
0
1
1.5
16:04
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
2
2
+1
0
0
1.1
20:55
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
0
1
-1
4
3
0.8
14:00
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
1
0
1
+1
7
1
0.7
13:47
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
1
0
1
+2
10
1
1.1
7:30
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
1
1
+4
0
0
0.8
21:54
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.1
16:51
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
-1
2
3
0.1
17:22
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
-1
2
0
-0.1
14:23
#3 M. Funk (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
11:56
#4 N. Pratt (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.2
14:56
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+1
2
1
0.2
25:39
#34 M. Weber (D)
0
0
0
+4
10
0
0.2
7:36
Total
7
13
20
48
31
16.8
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller281.9642.060:00W

Team Stats

CARBUF
28Shots on Goal31
5Power Play Chances10
0%PP%10%
90%PK%100%
0PPG1
81Penalty Minutes48
27Hits21
6Blocked Shots11
8Giveaways9
2Takeaways6

Full Game Log

1ST
04:44GOAL (BUF): Daniel Paille (17), assists: Derek Roy
05:06GOAL (BUF): Adam Mair (5), assists: Drew Stafford, Steve Bernier
10:51GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (28), assists: Jason Pominville, Henrik Tallinder
13:46GOAL (BUF): Paul Gaustad (9), assists: Adam Mair, Jason Pominville
2ND
02:55GOAL (BUF): Patrick Kaleta (3), assists: Drew Stafford, Adam Mair
15:38GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (29), assists: Daniel Paille, Steve Bernier
3RD
11:30GOAL (CAR): Scott Walker (11), assists: Tim Gleason, Glen Wesley
16:39GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (21), assists: Andrej Sekera, Henrik Tallinder
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