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November 7, 2008

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

ATL 54 BUF

FINAL / OT

Head-to-Head vs ATL all-time
1ST2ND3RDOTT
ATL12115
BUF22004
Shots on goal ATL 26, BUF 32W J. HedbergL R. Miller
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and lost 4-5 in overtime.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .808
ATL J. Hedberg .875
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 3
ATL 2 of 3
TURNING POINT
J. Williams goal (OT 0:48), Sabres win chance drops from 45% to 0%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
D. Roy
2 (2A)
POINTS
D. Roy
20:10
TOI (F)
J. Spacek
21:54
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.808 (21/26)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFATL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 32 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

OT 0:48
+9+50-5-9shot attemptsBUFATL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 63%.

OT 0:48
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFATL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. OT 00:48J. Williams (5) 45% to 0%-45
  2. P3 08:00T. White (4) 86% to 56%-30
  3. P2 15:02B. Little (8) 85% to 62%-23
  4. P2 15:52T. Vanek (12) 60% to 83%+23

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2008–09 regular season (82 games).

Wins (41)Losses (41, 9 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 78% when yes, 24% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 81% when yes, 39% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 66% when yes, 32% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 60% when yes, 37% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
2
2
-1
2
2
1.3
20:10
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
2
2
-1
0
1
1.3
15:33
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
1
0
1
-2
0
3
1.0
16:32
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
0
1
-1
0
4
1.4
18:44
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
1
0
1
+1
2
1
0.9
10:43
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
5
1.1
13:29
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.9
17:13
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
-1
0
1
0.8
20:32
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.2
14:41
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
+2
0
1
0.1
11:12
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
14:57
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
-1
2
4
0.2
16:57
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
11:29
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
14:08
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
0
0
4
0.4
19:50
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
21:54
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
20:13
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
2
0.0
19:23
Total
4
6
10
8
32
9.8
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller265.808-1.660:46O

Team Stats

ATLBUF
26Shots on Goal32
3Power Play Chances3
67%PP%67%
33%PK%33%
2PPG2
8Penalty Minutes8
16Hits16
10Blocked Shots9
8Giveaways11
0Takeaways6

Full Game Log

1ST
04:12GOAL (ATL): Jason Williams (4), assists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Erik Christensen
08:15GOAL (BUF): Clarke MacArthur (6), assists: Henrik Tallinder
18:40GOAL (BUF): Ales Kotalik (5), assists: Derek Roy, Tim Connolly
2ND
03:58GOAL (ATL): Bryan Little (7), assists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Toby Enstrom
07:30GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (1), assists: Teppo Numminen
15:02GOAL (ATL): Bryan Little (8), assists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Niclas Havelid
15:52GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (12), assists: Tim Connolly, Derek Roy
3RD
08:00GOAL (ATL): Todd White (4), assists: Bryan Little, Vyacheslav Kozlov
OT
00:48GOAL (ATL): Jason Williams (5), assists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Ron Hainsey
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