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January 27, 2009

Rexall Place | Edmonton

BUF 102 EDM

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs EDM all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF34310
EDM0112
Shots on goal BUF 37, EDM 38W R. MillerL D. Roloson
Summary

Shots on goal were even in all situations; Buffalo won 10-2.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .947
EDM D. Roloson .625
EDM J. Deslauriers .759
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 3 of 6
EDM 1 of 8
TURNING POINT
D. Stafford goal (P1 0:10), Sabres win chance rises from 47% to 65%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
D. Stafford
3 (3G)
POINTS
J. Pominville
21:06
TOI (F)
T. Lydman
23:14
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.947 (36/38)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFEDM

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 0 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+8+40-4-8shot attemptsBUFEDM

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 47%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFEDM
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 00:10D. Stafford (10) 47% to 65%+18
  2. P1 01:11N. Paetsch (1) 65% to 80%+15
  3. P1 10:17D. Roy (19) 83% to 92%+9
  4. P2 02:02J. Hecht (6) 95% to 98%+3

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2008–09 regular season (82 games).

Wins (41)Losses (41, 9 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 78% when yes, 24% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 81% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 66% when yes, 32% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 60% when yes, 37% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#9 D. Roy (C)
1
2
3
+2
2
1
1.8
19:38
#19 T. Connolly (C)
2
1
3
+3
0
2
2.5
20:41
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
3
0
3
+2
2
4
2.4
13:12
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
2
3
+2
0
4
2.7
17:06
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
2
2
+1
2
5
1.3
15:09
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
2
2
+2
0
4
1.6
21:06
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
2
2
+2
0
2
1.4
11:47
#55 J. Hecht (C)
1
1
2
+3
0
2
1.7
15:48
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
1
1
2
+2
0
2
1.6
13:05
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
2
2
+1
4
1
1.3
21:48
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.9
15:49
#6 J. Spacek (D)
1
0
1
+4
2
3
1.0
21:42
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
0
0
-1
4
0
-0.3
8:44
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
3:53
#37 M. Ellis (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.4
9:18
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+3
0
3
0.9
23:14
#17 M. Gragnani (D)
0
0
0
+2
0
0
0.0
12:48
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.2
21:06
Total
10
16
26
16
37
21.2
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller382.9472.159:27W

Team Stats

BUFEDM
37Shots on Goal38
6Power Play Chances8
50%PP%13%
88%PK%50%
3PPG1
16Penalty Minutes12
5Hits11
21Blocked Shots7
14Giveaways17
8Takeaways7

Full Game Log

1ST
00:10GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (10), assists: Thomas Vanek
01:11GOAL (BUF): Nathan Paetsch (1), assists: Clarke MacArthur
10:17GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (19), assists: Nathan Paetsch, Jason Pominville
2ND
02:02GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (6), assists: Jason Pominville, Derek Roy
13:23GOAL (EDM): Erik Cole (12), assists: Robert Nilsson, Denis Grebeshkov
14:19GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (6), assists: Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy
17:40GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (29), assists: Craig Rivet
18:59GOAL (BUF): Jaroslav Spacek (2), assists: Craig Rivet, Ales Kotalik
3RD
11:22GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (11), assists: Paul Gaustad, Ales Kotalik
12:40GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (12), assists: Tim Connolly, Clarke MacArthur
17:52GOAL (EDM): Robert Nilsson (7), assists: Sheldon Souray, Tom Gilbert
18:45GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (7), assists: Jochen Hecht
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