@ NYR (Mar 21, 2009)vs TOR (Mar 27, 2009) ›

March 25, 2009

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

FLA 35 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs FLA all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
FLA1113
BUF1045
Shots on goal FLA 33, BUF 45W M. TellqvistL T. Vokoun
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 5-3.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Tellqvist .909
FLA T. Vokoun .909
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 5
FLA 0 of 2
TURNING POINT
C. MacArthur goal (P3 7:05), Sabres win chance rises from 18% to 52%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Pominville
3 (1G-2A)
POINTS
T. Connolly
18:18
TOI (F)
J. Spacek
23:19
TOI (D)
M. Tellqvist
.909 (30/33)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFFLA

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+15+80-8-15shot attemptsBUFFLA

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 54%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFFLA
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 07:05C. MacArthur (14) 18% to 52%+34
  2. P3 08:21T. Connolly (14) 57% to 85%+28
  3. P2 14:55R. Zednik (16) 53% to 26%-27
  4. P1 09:31B. McLean (5) 54% to 34%-20

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2008–09 regular season (82 games).

Wins (41)Losses (41, 9 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 78% when yes, 24% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 81% when yes, 39% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 66% when yes, 32% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 60% when yes, 37% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
1
2
3
+2
0
5
2.4
17:23
#19 T. Connolly (C)
1
1
2
+3
0
2
1.5
18:18
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
0
0
1
1.0
17:28
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
1
0
1
0
12
3
0.7
12:54
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
1
0
1
+1
4
6
1.5
17:14
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
1
1
-1
0
4
0.9
23:09
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
1
1
0
0
3
1.0
23:19
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
-1
0
0
0.9
19:15
#52 C. Rivet (D)
1
0
1
+2
5
1
0.9
19:08
#17 D. Moore (C)
0
0
0
0
2
3
0.1
15:59
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
14:19
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
8:35
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
12:23
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
-3
0
3
0.4
17:21
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
0
0
0
-3
0
4
0.5
12:37
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
4
0.4
14:50
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.1
15:39
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.2
16:16
Total
5
7
12
23
45
12.7
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#32 M. Tellqvist333.9090.859:53W

Team Stats

FLABUF
33Shots on Goal45
2Power Play Chances5
0%PP%40%
60%PK%100%
0PPG2
19Penalty Minutes23
18Hits17
17Blocked Shots16
7Giveaways13
0Takeaways1

Full Game Log

1ST
09:31GOAL (FLA): Brett McLean (5), assists: Jassen Cullimore, Kamil Kreps
19:46GOAL (BUF): Craig Rivet (2), assists: Derek Roy, Toni Lydman
2ND
14:55GOAL (FLA): Richard Zednik (16), assists: Nathan Horton, Nick Boynton
3RD
03:25GOAL (FLA): Michael Frolik (19), assists: Brett McLean, Keith Ballard
06:14GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (16), assists: Henrik Tallinder
07:05GOAL (BUF): Clarke MacArthur (14), assists: Jason Pominville, Tim Connolly
08:21GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (14), assists: Jaroslav Spacek, Jason Pominville
19:28GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (5), unassisted
@ NYR (Mar 21, 2009)vs TOR (Mar 27, 2009) ›