vs NYI (Oct 16, 2009)@ FLA (Oct 21, 2009) ›

October 17, 2009

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

ATL 42 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs ATL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
ATL2114
BUF0112
Shots on goal ATL 27, BUF 42W J. HedbergL P. Lalime
Summary

Buffalo had more shot attempts in all situations and lost 2-4.

IN NET
Buffalo P. Lalime .852
ATL J. Hedberg .952
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 5
ATL 2 of 5
TURNING POINT
I. Kovalchuk, power play goal (P1 6:47), Sabres win chance drops from 53% to 35%
WIN DNA
1 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Connolly
2 (2A)
POINTS
J. Pominville
21:05
TOI (F)
C. Butler
21:43
TOI (D)
P. Lalime
.852 (23/27)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFATL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Additional per-period stats
Each cell is BUF-ATL.
 1ST2ND3RDTotal
Faceoffs Won10-148-1313-431-31
Hits9-511-87-627-19
Takeaways0-10-22-32-6
Giveaways6-54-64-614-17
PDO (5v5): BUF 0.944ATL 1.056. Shooting % plus save %. About 1.000 is neutral.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 7 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+24+120-12-24shot attemptsBUFATL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 55%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFATL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 06:47I. Kovalchuk (1), power play 53% to 35%-18
  2. P2 06:56C. MacArthur (1) 13% to 30%+17
  3. P1 09:48I. Kovalchuk (2) 35% to 19%-16
  4. P2 07:53T. White (1), power play 27% to 12%-15

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.

Shot Map

Every shot attempt, to scale.

Replay
P3 18:00
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

Win DNA

1 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2009–10 regular season (82 games).

Wins (45)Losses (37, 10 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 81% when yes, 33% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 85% when yes, 40% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 76% when yes, 34% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 76% when yes, 33% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
2
2
0
2
6
1.7
19:46
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
5
1.1
15:31
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
1
1
0
0
3
0.9
21:05
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
1
0
1
0
0
3
1.0
17:34
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.9
21:43
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
-1
2
3
0.1
17:35
#13 T. Kennedy (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
9:39
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
8:45
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
9:13
#25 M. Grier (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
4
0.5
15:07
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
0
5
0.4
15:42
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.4
8:39
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
19:08
#4 S. Montador (D)
0
0
0
0
2
1
-0.1
20:27
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.2
19:30
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
0
-0.1
15:40
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
20:21
#57 T. Myers (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
17:04
Total
2
4
6
8
42
7.7
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#40 P. Lalime274.852-0.759:21L

Team Stats

ATLBUF
27Shots on Goal42
8.7%Shooting % (5v5)3.1%
.969Save % (5v5).913
1.056PDO (5v5)0.944
31 (50%)Faceoffs Won31 (50%)
5Power Play Chances5
40%PP%20%
80%PK%60%
2PPG1
12Penalty Minutes10
19Hits27
15Blocked Shots6
17Giveaways14
6Takeaways2

Full Game Log

1ST
00:00Period start
06:47GOAL (ATL): Ilya Kovalchuk (1), assists: Nik Antropov, Rich Peverley(PP)
09:48GOAL (ATL): Ilya Kovalchuk (2), assists: Bryan Little, Nik Antropov
20:00Period end
2ND
00:00Period start
06:56GOAL (BUF): Clarke MacArthur (1), assists: Tim Connolly, Jason Pominville
07:53GOAL (ATL): Todd White (1), assists: Toby Enstrom, Vyacheslav Kozlov(PP)
20:00Period end
3RD
00:00Period start
16:26GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (1), assists: Tim Connolly, Chris Butler(PP)
16:43GOAL (ATL): Maxim Afinogenov (1), assists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Johan Hedberg
vs NYI (Oct 16, 2009)@ FLA (Oct 21, 2009) ›