@ TOR (Jan 1, 2009)vs OTT (Jan 6, 2009) ›

January 3, 2009

TD Banknorth Garden | Boston

BUF 42 BOS

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs BOS all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF2204
BOS1102
Shots on goal BUF 25, BOS 31W R. MillerL T. Thomas
Summary

BOS had more shots on goal in all situations, but Buffalo won 4-2.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .935
BOS T. Thomas .840
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 3
BOS 1 of 5
TURNING POINT
P. Gaustad goal (P2 13:06), Sabres win chance rises from 65% to 85%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
M. Ellis
3 (2G-1A)
POINTS
J. Hecht
21:51
TOI (F)
A. Sekera
22:54
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.935 (29/31)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFBOS

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 3 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+6+30-3-6shot attemptsBUFBOS

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 34%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFBOS
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 13:06P. Gaustad (4) 65% to 85%+20
  2. P2 09:51S. Thornton (3) 83% to 63%-20
  3. P2 03:04M. Ellis (3) 60% to 79%+19
  4. P1 03:20M. Ellis (2) 34% to 52%+18

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2008–09 regular season (82 games).

Wins (41)Losses (41, 9 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 78% when yes, 24% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 81% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 66% when yes, 32% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 60% when yes, 37% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#37 M. Ellis (LW)
2
1
3
+3
0
3
2.3
9:51
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
2
2
+1
0
4
1.5
20:06
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
0
0
1
1.0
21:29
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
1
1
+1
0
3
0.9
16:06
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.6
3:36
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
0
1
0
4
1
0.7
16:07
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
4
1.1
20:30
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
0
0
1
0.8
21:11
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
1
1
+2
0
1
0.8
22:54
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
16:24
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
2
0
-0.1
16:39
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
6:35
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.3
21:51
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
1:34
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
0
2
1
-0.1
20:36
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
+2
0
1
0.1
21:43
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
16:40
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
15:09
Total
4
8
12
8
25
10.4
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller312.9351.459:55W

Team Stats

BUFBOS
25Shots on Goal31
3Power Play Chances5
33%PP%20%
80%PK%67%
1PPG1
12Penalty Minutes8
24Hits27
11Blocked Shots3
2Giveaways6
6Takeaways4

Full Game Log

1ST
03:20GOAL (BUF): Matt Ellis (2), assists: Henrik Tallinder, Jason Pominville
05:08GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (26), assists: Derek Roy, Jason Pominville
10:46GOAL (BOS): Phil Kessel (24), assists: Marc Savard, Milan Lucic
2ND
03:04GOAL (BUF): Matt Ellis (3), assists: Ales Kotalik, Daniel Paille
09:51GOAL (BOS): Shawn Thornton (3), assists: Martin St. Pierre, Shane Hnidy
13:06GOAL (BUF): Paul Gaustad (4), assists: Andrej Sekera, Matt Ellis
@ TOR (Jan 1, 2009)vs OTT (Jan 6, 2009) ›