vs ANA (Feb 24, 2009)@ NYI (Feb 28, 2009) ›

February 26, 2009

RBC Center | Raleigh

BUF 12 CAR

FINAL / SO

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-time
1ST2ND3RDOTSOT
BUF010001
CAR001012
Shots on goal BUF 37, CAR 32W C. WardL P. Lalime
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and lost 1-2 in a shootout.

IN NET
Buffalo P. Lalime .969
CAR C. Ward .973
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 1
CAR 0 of 6
TURNING POINT
A. Babchuk goal (P3 7:34), Sabres win chance drops from 84% to 50%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
P. Kaleta
1 (1G)
POINTS
T. Connolly
21:41
TOI (F)
A. Sekera
24:46
TOI (D)
P. Lalime
.969 (31/32)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

OT 4:44
+12+60-6-12shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 50%.

OT 5:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 07:34A. Babchuk (7) 84% to 50%-34
  2. P2 12:43P. Kaleta (4) 50% to 75%+25
  3. P3 13:50Hooking on Paul Gaustad, 2 min 50% to 43%-7
  4. P3 11:34Charging on Patrick Kaleta, 2 min 50% to 43%-7

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2008–09 regular season (82 games).

Wins (41)Losses (41, 9 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 78% when yes, 24% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 81% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 66% when yes, 32% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 60% when yes, 37% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
1
1
+1
2
2
0.6
15:12
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
1
0
1
+1
4
3
0.7
11:35
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
1
1
+1
0
2
0.9
12:01
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
21:14
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
17:08
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
21:41
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
8:24
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.3
15:54
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
8:06
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
4
0.4
20:42
#37 M. Ellis (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
8:10
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
3
0.3
18:48
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
0
4
2
-0.1
24:38
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
18:32
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
22:27
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
16:50
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
0
0
0
0
4
0.5
24:46
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
0
0
0
2
2
0.2
21:51
Total
1
2
3
12
37
5.1
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#40 P. Lalime321.9692.465:00O

Team Stats

BUFCAR
37Shots on Goal32
1Power Play Chances6
0%PP%0%
100%PK%100%
0PPG0
12Penalty Minutes2
25Hits25
22Blocked Shots6
3Giveaways5
9Takeaways13

Full Game Log

2ND
12:43GOAL (BUF): Patrick Kaleta (4), assists: Clarke MacArthur, Paul Gaustad
3RD
07:34GOAL (CAR): Anton Babchuk (7), assists: Michael Ryan, Eric Staal
SO
00:00GOAL (CAR): Jussi Jokinen, assists: Patrick Lalime(SO)
vs ANA (Feb 24, 2009)@ NYI (Feb 28, 2009) ›