@ CAR (Apr 9, 2009)

April 11, 2009

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

BOS 16 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs BOS all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BOS0011
BUF4116
Shots on goal BOS 35, BUF 34W M. TellqvistL M. Fernandez
Summary

Shots on goal were even in all situations; Buffalo won 6-1.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Tellqvist .971
BOS M. Fernandez .824
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 1 of 3
BOS 1 of 4
TURNING POINT
T. Connolly goal (P1 3:34), Sabres win chance rises from 43% to 61%
WIN DNA
4 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Vanek
3 (2G-1A)
POINTS
M. Ellis
7
SHOTS
D. Roy
18:13
TOI (F)
T. Numminen
22:30
TOI (D)
M. Tellqvist
.971 (34/35)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFBOS

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 4 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+12+60-6-12shot attemptsBUFBOS

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 43%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFBOS
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 03:34T. Connolly (18) 43% to 61%+18
  2. P1 11:29C. Butler (2) 63% to 80%+17
  3. P1 15:43T. Vanek (39) 81% to 92%+11
  4. P1 17:08D. Paille (12) 92% to 97%+5

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

4 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2008–09 regular season (82 games).

Wins (41)Losses (41, 9 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 78% when yes, 24% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 81% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 66% when yes, 32% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 60% when yes, 37% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
2
1
3
+2
2
5
2.4
12:27
#19 T. Connolly (C)
1
1
2
+2
0
2
1.7
14:42
#37 M. Ellis (LW)
1
1
2
+2
0
7
2.0
12:06
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
2
2
+1
0
0
1.5
17:56
#20 D. Paille (LW)
1
0
1
+2
0
1
0.8
12:08
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.6
11:59
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
1
1
+2
0
1
0.8
12:45
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
1
1
+1
2
0
0.5
18:55
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
+2
0
1
0.6
22:30
#34 C. Butler (D)
1
0
1
+2
0
1
0.9
17:49
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
1
1
+2
0
4
1.0
20:19
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.4
18:13
#17 D. Moore (C)
0
0
0
+1
4
3
0.1
16:49
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
16:44
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
+1
2
0
-0.1
14:40
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
17:54
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+2
0
0
0.0
21:55
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
+2
0
2
0.2
11:44
Total
6
10
16
10
34
13.7
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#32 M. Tellqvist351.9712.760:00W

Team Stats

BOSBUF
35Shots on Goal34
4Power Play Chances3
25%PP%33%
67%PK%75%
1PPG1
8Penalty Minutes10
14Hits6
9Blocked Shots10
5Giveaways21
2Takeaways9

Full Game Log

1ST
03:34GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (18), assists: Thomas Vanek, Andrej Sekera
11:29GOAL (BUF): Chris Butler (2), assists: Craig Rivet, Adam Mair
15:43GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (39), assists: Jason Pominville
17:08GOAL (BUF): Daniel Paille (12), assists: Matt Ellis, Teppo Numminen
2ND
01:36GOAL (BUF): Matt Ellis (7), assists: Andrej Sekera
3RD
13:55GOAL (BOS): Mark Recchi (23), assists: Matt Hunwick, Michael Ryder
19:44GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (40), assists: Tim Connolly, Jaroslav Spacek
@ CAR (Apr 9, 2009)