@ TOR (Apr 8, 2009)vs BOS (Apr 11, 2009) ›

April 9, 2009

RBC Center | Raleigh

BUF 51 CAR

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF1315
CAR0011
Shots on goal BUF 25, CAR 27W R. MillerL C. Ward
Summary

Shots on goal were even in all situations; Buffalo won 5-1.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .963
CAR C. Ward .692
CAR M. Leighton .917
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 5
CAR 1 of 2
TURNING POINT
J. Pominville goal (P1 5:34), Sabres win chance rises from 44% to 63%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Pominville
2 (2G)
POINTS
D. Roy
3
SHOTS
D. Roy
20:48
TOI (F)
T. Lydman
22:04
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.963 (26/27)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 6 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+7+40-4-7shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 44%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P1 05:34J. Pominville (19) 44% to 63%+19
  2. P2 03:15M. Ellis (6) 68% to 85%+17
  3. P2 06:16J. Hecht (12) 86% to 95%+9
  4. P1 08:14Interference goalkeeper on Chad LaRose, 2 min 64% to 67%+3

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2008–09 regular season (82 games).

Wins (41)Losses (41, 9 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 78% when yes, 24% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 81% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 66% when yes, 32% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 60% when yes, 37% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
2
2
+2
0
0
1.5
17:00
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
2
2
+2
0
2
1.5
11:58
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
2
0
2
+2
0
3
1.8
15:15
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
2
2
+3
0
1
1.5
21:22
#9 D. Roy (C)
1
0
1
+2
0
3
1.0
20:48
#37 M. Ellis (LW)
1
0
1
+1
0
2
0.9
10:18
#55 J. Hecht (C)
1
0
1
+1
0
3
1.0
16:40
#17 D. Moore (C)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.0
16:06
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
13:47
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
12:17
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
+2
0
1
0.1
16:32
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
2
2
0.1
15:24
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.1
22:04
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.2
18:35
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
15:29
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.2
9:34
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
0
0
+3
0
2
0.2
20:04
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
0
0
0
2
0
-0.1
21:04
Total
5
6
11
6
25
10.4
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller271.9631.959:52W

Team Stats

BUFCAR
25Shots on Goal27
5Power Play Chances2
0%PP%50%
50%PK%100%
0PPG1
6Penalty Minutes12
16Hits27
17Blocked Shots14
2Giveaways4
8Takeaways13

Full Game Log

1ST
05:34GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (19), assists: Tim Connolly, Jaroslav Spacek
2ND
03:15GOAL (BUF): Matt Ellis (6), assists: Jaroslav Spacek, Daniel Paille
06:16GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (12), assists: Daniel Paille
10:13GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (20), assists: Tim Connolly
3RD
09:39GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (28), unassisted
19:32GOAL (CAR): Eric Staal (40), assists: Ray Whitney, Anton Babchuk
@ TOR (Apr 8, 2009)vs BOS (Apr 11, 2009) ›