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December 6, 2008

St. Pete Times Forum | Tampa

BUF 43 TBL

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs TBL all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF1214
TBL1203
Shots on goal BUF 27, TBL 23W R. MillerL M. Smith
Summary

Buffalo had more shots on goal in all situations and won 4-3.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .870
TBL M. Smith .852
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 6
TBL 0 of 6
TURNING POINT
D. Roy goal (P3 10:03), Sabres win chance rises from 50% to 86%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
D. Stafford
3 (1G-2A)
POINTS
J. Pominville
20:32
TOI (F)
J. Spacek
22:55
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.870 (20/23)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFTBL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+12+60-6-12shot attemptsBUFTBL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 50%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFTBL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 10:03D. Roy (7) 50% to 86%+36
  2. P2 15:20V. Prospal (6) 76% to 50%-26
  3. P2 14:41J. Hecht (3) 50% to 76%+26
  4. P2 10:21P. Ranger (2) 74% to 50%-24

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2008–09 regular season (82 games).

Wins (41)Losses (41, 9 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 78% when yes, 24% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 81% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 66% when yes, 32% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 60% when yes, 37% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
1
2
3
+3
0
4
2.2
16:06
#9 D. Roy (C)
1
1
2
+2
2
2
1.8
19:51
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
1
1
0
7
1
0.6
9:59
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
0
1
0
0
2
0.9
15:09
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
1
1
0
7
3
0.9
17:58
#55 J. Hecht (C)
1
0
1
-1
9
2
0.7
14:34
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
1
1
-1
0
1
0.7
19:22
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
+2
0
1
0.8
17:33
#12 A. Kotalik (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
3
0.3
14:13
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.2
12:23
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
-1
2
0
-0.1
20:32
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
8:28
#42 N. Gerbe (C)
0
0
0
+2
2
4
0.3
15:09
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.2
12:46
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
22:55
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+2
0
0
0.0
10:48
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.2
18:42
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.2
21:00
Total
4
7
11
29
27
10.0
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller233.870-0.259:58W

Team Stats

BUFTBL
27Shots on Goal23
6Power Play Chances6
0%PP%0%
100%PK%100%
0PPG0
29Penalty Minutes29
12Hits25
11Blocked Shots17
4Giveaways13
8Takeaways7

Full Game Log

1ST
10:02GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (4), assists: Paul Gaustad
13:05GOAL (TBL): Martin St. Louis (7), assists: Vincent Lecavalier, Lukas Krajicek
2ND
09:46GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (19), assists: Derek Roy, Drew Stafford
10:21GOAL (TBL): Paul Ranger (2), assists: Vincent Lecavalier, Vinny Prospal
14:41GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (3), assists: Adam Mair, Toni Lydman
15:20GOAL (TBL): Vinny Prospal (6), assists: Marek Malik, Martin St. Louis
3RD
10:03GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (7), assists: Teppo Numminen, Drew Stafford
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